Executive Summary: The Russian population’s interest in the war against Ukraine has significantly declined over the past two years, confirming some sociologists’ conclusion that the initial considerable pro-war sentiment was more about adapting to a new “normal” than genuine public support. Russian society has experienced... MORE

Executive Summary: The Kremlin announced a transformation of its military districts to “buy” loyalty from its officer corps and organize its military with to prepare for war on and beyond its northwestern borders. The Russian High Command considers the movements of its neighbors and enemies... MORE

Executive Summary Iran’s supply of surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia is unprecedented, further diminishing any room for rapprochement between the West and Tehran. Tehran and Moscow’s military cooperation has been steadily growing and is nearing a formal alliance. The new interstate treaty will shape bilateral... MORE

 Executive Summary: The Bashkirs are increasingly hearkening back to their heritage of resistance to the central government, leading other non-Russian ethnic minorities to view Moscow, rather than their local leaders, as the problem. Some observers are describing the events in Bashkortostan as a new “Black... MORE

Executive Summary: Cossack education has increasingly focused on preparing Russian youth for war. New Cossack cadet corps are being developed in Crimea, expanding Russia’s foothold on the peninsula. Cultural events celebrating Cossack traditions to “inculcate a love of the motherland in young people” are becoming... MORE

Executive Summary:  The Kremlin’s tactics of increasing repression and exaggerating domestic support for the war resemble strategies used during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Stalin’s earlier repressions. The Kremlin attempted to use the coinciding of Navalny’s death with Russian successes at Avdiivka to undermine... MORE

Executive Summary: The first sign that Putin would be truly ready for peace negotiations would be discretely initiating contact through intelligence personnel, diplomats, and “useful idiots.” The West should have several signals in mind when considering Putin’s true intentions, as Kremlin messaging could be a... MORE

Executive Summary:  Astana plans to pursue a “multi-vector” diplomatic strategy for 2024, engaging more with the CSTO, NATO, and other international organizations and conducting joint military exercises with diverse partners. Kazakhstan’s involvement in CSTO peacekeeping missions highlights its regional security commitments and ongoing reliance on... MORE

Executive Summary: Recent developments in Mongolia challenge Moscow’s long-standing assumption that it has sufficient leverage to keep Ulaanbaatar in line with Russian interests. Two of these developments—Russian flight there and interest in Mongolia among Russia’s Buddhist peoples—are probably long-term, disturbing many Russians. The third—Mongolia’s restriction... MORE

(Part One) Executive Summary Russian special services are actively disseminating disinformation to influence public opinion in Africa. The disinformation campaign replicates Soviet-era themes that emphasize narratives alleging the West’s compromising of African countries’ sovereignty. These themes continue to have resonance in the region because of... MORE