Executive Summary Mikhail "Pitbull" Turkanov is a prominent commander in the Española volunteer brigade, a former MMA fighter, and a Zenit Football Club hooligan with tattoos that include neo-Nazi imagery. Charismatic propaganda figures like Turkanov are able to appeal to highly nationalistic soccer hooligans who... MORE

Executive Summary Putin has tried to convey the “success” of his war by maintaining the façade that there are no serious problems on the home front and that the Russian people remain resolute in their support of the Kremlin leader. Moscow’s messaging has become less... MORE

The true organizational state of the Russian Armed Forces has been a “black box” since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The exact number of troops at the Kremlin’s disposal is unclear, and the mix of contracted soldiers, volunteers, and prisoners on the... MORE

*Read Part One. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) made clear in 2023 that Ukraine could not expect to be offered a sought-after membership plan so long as Russia’s war continues. Any decision on this matter has been postponed until “after the war.” The NATO... MORE

Russia’s geopolitical influence is increasingly shrinking in the Baltic Sea region. The most recent episode in the region’s worsening relations with Moscow was the sudden arrival of hundreds of migrants from the Middle East and Africa in November to the busy border crossing between Russia... MORE

In 2023, Russia redoubled efforts in its two-fold war in Ukraine: against Ukraine itself and against the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Moscow openly declares this dual agenda. Most Western governments, nevertheless, remain unwilling to recognize that Russia is also at... MORE

On October 15, after eight years in power, the Law and Justice (PiS) government in Poland lost its absolute parliamentary majority. While PiS technically won a plurality of the vote, it was unable to form a coalition government. On December 11, the Sejm (lower house... MORE

Thirty years after the Sofia municipality first decided to remove a monument to the Soviet army from the capital city, Bulgaria is finally dismantling the most prominent symbol of Soviet occupation on its territory. Built in 1954 by the communist authorities, the monument depicted a... MORE

Over the past month, as many as ten forced landings of civilian aircraft have taken place in Russia. The most serious of these happened over the past week. On December 7, a fire on board an Aeroflot Airlines Boeing 777 forced the aircraft to make... MORE

Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and leader of the opposition-in-exile Svetlana Tikhanovskaya spent the previous week abroad trying to improve their standing with influential global powers, with Lukashenka visiting China and Tikhanovskaya traveling to the United States. A triangular model has emerged that characterizes the current... MORE