Seeds of the Sunflower Movement

Executive Summary:

• The 2014 Sunflower Movement significantly impacted Taiwan’s political landscape, leading to a shift towards the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and away from policies pursuing deeper official cross-strait engagement.
• The movement catalyzed policies for economic diversification which have measurably reduced dependence on the PRC. These include the New Southbound Policy and increased trade with the United States and Europe.
• Taiwan’s continued democratic resilience and international cooperation efforts are directly influenced by the legacy of the Sunflower Movement, including recent trade agreements with the United States and the United Kingdom.

Ten years ago, Taiwan experienced its largest student and civic movement since democratization. The 2014 Sunflower Movement was also the first mass occupation of the parliament chamber in the country’s history. Without it, Taiwan’s economic independence and democratic achievements would likely have led it to a vastly different place today. 

2013–2014: A Global Year of Protest

The years 2013 and 2014 saw several significant grassroots movements emerge, demonstrating against the expansion of authoritarianism, all of which were pivotal in shaping global geopolitics. The Sunflower Movement began on March 18, 2014 and lasted for 21 days. It opposed the policies of the incumbent Kuomintang (KMT) government and the KMT President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) which were excessively supportive of deeper cross-strait engagement. It also opposed the signing of the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement and further economic integration between Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Ultimately, it aimed to safeguard Taiwan’s democratic system from external interference. The second movement to occur that year took place in September, in Hong Kong. What came to be known as the Umbrella Movement demanded that Beijing fulfill its promises to the city by allowing the Hong Kong people to govern Hong Kong, implementing genuine universal suffrage, and opposing the spread of Chinese authoritarianism. The two movements followed the 2013 Euromaidan revolution in Kyiv, Ukraine, sparked by the decision by former president Viktor Yanukovych to opt for closer ties to Russia rather than with the European Union. While the Sunflower and Umbrella movements saw the PRC as the common denominator, the Euromaidan protests shared the premise of demonstrating against an authoritarian power exerting undue influence on and intervention in the politics of a neighboring democratic polity.

The three movements ended in distinct ways. Following the Euromaidan revolution’s conclusion, Russia launched a military invasion, annexing Crimea. This further motivated Ukrainians to strengthen their civil defense preparations, laying the foundation for Ukraine’s eventual ability to sustain resistance against Russian aggression—a resistance now approaching two years. The outcome of the Sunflower Movement was quite different. Although there were some clashes with the police during the occupation of the parliament building, the movement ultimately ended peacefully. Moreover, it was successful in achieving a key aim of blocking the passage of the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement in the legislature. It also significantly disrupted the political agenda of the Ma administration, which sought closer integration with the PRC and eventual unification. 

The Sunflower Movement And Progressive Politics in Taiwan

Before the Sunflower Movement, the international community was not optimistic about Taiwan’s future. John Mearsheimer, the well-known international relations theorist, published an article in early 2014 titled “Say Goodbye to Taiwan” (National Interest, February 25, 2014). In it, he argued that “there is a reasonable chance that American policy makers will eventually conclude that it makes good strategic sense to abandon Taiwan and allow China to coerce it into accepting unification,” and that the international community would find it challenging to defend the island. However, less than two months after Mearsheimer’s article was published, the largest student and social movement in Taiwan’s history erupted, suggesting the possibility for a different, more hopeful path than his article might have led observers to foresee.

Following the Sunflower Movement, public opinion in Taiwan shifted. There was a much more widely held view that Taiwan should not move closer to or become more dependent on the PRC. This manifested in the local elections at the end of 2014, which were seen as a midterm referendum on the ruling party. The KMT lost eight municipalities and counties, dropping from holding 14 out of the 22 to just six. Instead, support shifted firmly to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which advocated for Taiwan to diversify its economic and trade relations rather than rely too heavily on the PRC. Subsequently, in 2016, Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) won the presidential election representing the DPP and led her party to a majority in the legislature, completing Taiwan’s third democratic transition.

Taiwan swiftly adjusted its course after the DPP came to power in 2016. President Tsai proposed the New Southbound Policy (新南向政策), encouraging Taiwanese investment in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and India in order to diversify the country’s economic and trade strategies. Additionally, the DPP introduced forward-looking infrastructure projects (前瞻基礎建設計畫), energy transition initiatives, and efforts towards achieving net-zero emissions. These all strengthened the domestic economy and attracted more Taiwanese businesses back to invest at home. As a result, Taiwan’s economy has maintained steady growth over the past few years. 

Taiwan’s economic dependence on the PRC has indeed continued to decline following eight years on this trajectory. During the Ma administration, the PRC accounted for nearly 45 percent of Taiwan’s total exports. However, following eight years of government under the DPP, the proportion of exports to the PRC reached 35 percent in 2023—the lowest point in 21 years (Ministry of Finance, January 9). This has been accompanied by significant growth in exports to Europe and the United States, reaching historic levels in 2023. Exports to the former amounted to $42.29 billion last year, accounting for 9.8 percent of total exports—a 2.9 percent increase on the previous year. Meanwhile, the latter received 17.6 percent ($76.24 billion) of total exports, at an annual growth rate of 1.6 percent. Additionally, 2022 saw investment by Taiwanese companies in Southeast Asia officially surpass investment in the PRC, demonstrating Taiwan’s gradual diversification of its foreign trade.

On January 13, 2024, Taiwan successfully conducted another democratic election. The ruling DPP won a third consecutive term in office, setting a record in Taiwan’s post-democratization history. The international community has largely interpreted this as a sign that public opinion in Taiwan still supports the current government’s national direction. However, the DPP was unable to secure a majority in the legislature. With the Kuomintang (KMT) and the anti-establishment third-force party, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), forming a majority in the legislature, the KMT’s pro-China lawmaker Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) was elected as speaker. This situation will have an impact on the DPP’s abilities to pursue its legislative agenda, including important reforms such as Taiwan’s defense autonomy. It also brings uncertainties to the future of cross-strait relations.

In the process of campaigning for the presidency, Vice President Lai Ching-te (賴清德), who will be inaugurated as the new president in May, has repeatedly stated that Taiwan will continue to diversify its trade relations and should not continue to lock Taiwan’s economy into a “One China” framework. Taiwan must also accelerate the development of its defense autonomy to strengthen its ability to respond to any contingencies. Taiwan will continue to invest resources in efforts to detach from the Chinese market, assist more Taiwanese companies in shifting towards markets in Europe, America, Southeast Asia, and South Asia, and enhance its resilience in the face of the impact of the PRC’s economic decline. This trajectory is reinforced by geopolitical trends and the PRC’s continued economic downturn.

The Sunflower Movement As Driver Of Political Change

During the Sunflower Movement in 2014, Taiwan faced a choice similar to that of Ukraine. Namely, whether to move towards the world or towards its authoritarian neighbor. Ten years ago, Taiwanese civil society, through unprecedented large-scale social movements, prevented the ruling government from acquiescing to the policies of its authoritarian neighbor. We cannot predict the course of history. However, it is reasonable to infer that, without the 2014 Sunflower Movement, Taiwan would have continued on the path of KMT governance towards cross-strait integration. This would have led to a very different outcome from the present and may have caused Taiwan to suffer amid the US-China trade war and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Instead, the Sunflower Movement guided Taiwan in a new direction. This direction was towards openness to the world and towards deepening connections with like-minded countries, thus providing a strong and powerful mandate for the new government. Ten years on, Taiwan continues to diversify its trade and strengthen its international democratic connections, signing new trade agreements. These include the 21st Century Taiwan-US Trade Initiative, signed with the United States, and the Enhanced Trade Partnership Agreement, signed with the United Kingdom (USTR, August 18, 2023; UKGOV, November 14, 2023). These efforts effectively mitigate risks for Taiwan.

Taiwan will continue to strive to join multilateral trade agreements such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) to further expand connections with more countries in the region, rather than relying solely on the PRC. Today, more than ever before, Taiwan needs support from countries around the world. It requires more substantial assistance and cooperation across military, security, and economic domains. The 2014 Sunflower Movement demonstrated the considerable resilience of the Taiwanese people and their determination for defending themselves and their democracy. With stronger and more substantial international support, Taiwan will undoubtedly continue to serve as a beacon of democracy.