LENINABAD REGION MAY HOLD BALANCE OF POWER.

Casting about for a counterweight to the UTO, Tajik President Imomali Rahmonov addressed a rally in Hujand, the center of Leninabad region, urging support to his policies of secularism. Rahmonov ruled out a constitutional revision that would remove the term "secular state". (Radio Dushanbe, February 26)

Leninabad region, situated in the northwest, is the country’s most populous, most developed economically, and most secularized. Much of its population is ethnically Uzbek. Since 1994, Rahmonov’s southern Kulob clan has short-changed the Leninabad region in the allocation of government posts and economic opportunities. As a result, the region has become a center of secular opposition to the Dushanbe government. Hujand was in 1996 the scene of an assassination attempt against Rahmonov. His belated appeal for Leninabad support is likely to be received with mistrust by many in that region.

Neighboring Uzbekistan on February 28 called for the inclusion of Leninabad region’s representatives in the Tajik government. Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Komilov pointed out that a process that involves only two sides — the Dushanbe government and the UTO — to the exclusion of Leninabad "would not bring any stability to the country." (Itar-Tass, February 28) This has also been the position of the UTO, which last year developed a tactical alliance with the Leninabad-based National Revival Bloc and sought to persuade Dushanbe to include the NRB in a three-way power-sharing arrangement. Dushanbe refused, however. Rahmonov’s apparently changing calculations will probably usher in a competitive bidding by his supporters and by UTO for Leninabad support. The rigidly secular Tashkent, which bids for political influence in post-war Tajikistan, will probably urge the region’s representatives to side with Dushanbe against UTO.

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