Latest articles from Vladimir Socor
Georgian Dream Government Not Coping with Economy’s Slump
Data just released by Georgia’s state agency for statistics (GeoStat) show a pronounced economic downturn. The robust growth that Georgia was experiencing until the October 2012 elections has petered out following the regime change. In June 2013, the economy contracted for the first time since... MORE
Ivanishvili Announces He May Soon Resign as Georgia’s Prime Minister
Interviewed by the Lithuanian daily Lietuvos Rytas (July 20) and the Brussels-based EUobserver (July 29), Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili has announced that he intends to resign from the government before the end of 2013, and instead become a civil society leader. In that case,... MORE
Gas Supply Diversification Prospects Uncertain in Central and Southeastern Europe
The demise of the Nabucco-West gas pipeline project leaves Romania and Hungary dependent on Russian gas imports, and scrambling for diversification solutions that variously look sub-optimal or doubtful. Conversely, the go-ahead to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project inspires some hopes for trickle-down supplies of natural... MORE
TAP Project Consortium Restructured in Line with Market Priorities
The Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) project consortium is being thoroughly reconfigured, reflecting the producers’ and shippers’ options for marketing Azerbaijani natural gas in Europe.On July 30, Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR), BP (formerly British Petroleum), and Total of France—gas producers at Shah Deniz in Azerbaijan—entered the... MORE
Moldovan Sovereignty and Gagauz Autonomy: A Balance Vulnerable to Moscow’s Mischief
From 1990 until 1994, Moldova faced two secessionist, Russia-oriented “republics” on its territory: Transnistria and Gagauzia. The autonomy settlement, negotiated by Chisinau with the Gagauz in 1994, retrieved Moldova’s southern territory that had at that stage been practically lost. It also succeeded in de-coupling the... MORE
Improved Political Representation Can Strengthen Gagauz Allegiance to Moldovan State
Moldova faces multiple Russian proxy operations to destabilize the country ahead of the European Union’s November 2013 Eastern Partnership Summit. Among such proxies, Gagauz radicals of 1990 vintage seek a more far-reaching level of Gagauz territorial autonomy, with hints at possible secession. Although marginal in... MORE
Tinkering with Gagauz Autonomy Can Destabilize Moldova
On July 24, the chief executive official (bashkan) of Moldova’s Gagauz autonomous territory, Mihail Formuzal, called for upgrading the autonomy’s status to that of a republic, on an equal footing with Transnistria, in the event that Transnistria receives republic status in a federalized Moldova (Unimedia,... MORE
Ivanishvili, Georgian Dream Approval Ratings Slipping Away
Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili achieved an impregnable political standing and carried Georgian Dream on his coattails in the October 2012 parliamentary elections. He led many voters to believe that his multi-billion dollar wealth could translate into handouts on a comparable scale for the populace. But... MORE
Presidential Election Campaign Under Way in Georgia
Georgia’s presidential election campaign is moving toward a seemingly predetermined outcome. Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili’s personal choice, Giorgi Margvelashvili, looks set to win the October 27 vote and replace the United National Movement’s (UNM) Mikheil Saakashvili as president. The governing Georgian Dream, the UNM parliamentary... MORE
Gazprom Resists Application of EU Law on Opal Pipeline in Germany
Russia’s Ministry of Energy and Gazprom want the European Commission to exempt the biggest pipelines in Germany, OPAL and NEL, from the European Union’s energy market legislation. OPAL and NEL are Gazprom’s joint ventures with Wintershall in Germany. The EU’s Third Legislative Package requires vertically... MORE