*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. *To read Part Three, please click here. President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has, in practice, achieved and maintained sovereignty in military affairs for Belarus vis-à-vis Russia (see below). These gains—for Belarus and neighboring... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Russia’s interests in Belarus at this stage may be categorized as status quo–oriented interests and those going beyond the status quo; the latter category clearly prevails in the political, institutional, and... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. Regime change via constitutional reform is Moscow’s chosen avenue toward its goal in Belarus: turning the country into a satellite of Russia, stopping short of outright incorporation (see Part One in EDM, October 15). At this stage, however,... MORE

Russia is not pursuing an “Anschluss” with Belarus. Rather, it aims to curtail Belarus’s external and internal sovereignty in the foreign policy, military, economic, and domestic institutional realms, stopping short of a political union of Russia and Belarus. The outcome would not amount to an... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. For now, the Belarusian authorities are holding out confidently against regime change on both fronts: against the domestic opposition and against Russia’s initial regime-change project. The latter could be seen lurking behind the thwarted presidential candidacies of Valery... MORE

The Kremlin is conducting a regime-change operation in Belarus, the first-ever Russian operation of this type in its “near abroad.” Belarus’s presidential election campaign from May to August and the election‘s aftermath have provided the launching pad for this operation.  It is premised on the... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. Visiting Lithuania and Latvia on September 28–30, French President Emmanuel Macron communicated a complex message. On one hand, he reassured both countries of France’s intention to continue participating in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) missions in the... MORE

French President Emmanuel Macron’s meeting with Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouska in Lithuania turned out to be even less than a side-show: a half-hour private meeting, without a joint public appearance (BNS, Agence France Presse, September 28, 29). Instead, Russia loomed large on Macron’s agenda... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here.   Russian President Vladimir Putin received his Belarusian counterpart Alyaksandr Lukashenka in Sochi on September 14 (see Part One). Putin emphasized that he had congratulated Lukashenka instantly on his reelection by telephone and in writing and that he... MORE

Russian President Vladimir Putin held a lengthy tête-à-tête with his Belarusian counterpart, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, on September 14, in Sochi—their first meeting since the outbreak of mass protests in Belarus against the flawed August 9 presidential election. Having mismanaged the election, used excessive force against protesters,... MORE