Wars often begin suddenly, but they rarely end that way, even when the sides commit to immediately laying down arms. That is especially true in the case of ceasefires where far from all the parameters have been defined and where some on each side will... MORE

The resumption of Azerbaijani-Armenian hostilities over the Karabakh region, located only 560 kilometers from Georgia’s capital of Tbilisi, has raised concerns within the Georgian government about the consequences of this conflict for the country, which faces tough parliamentary elections on October 31. On October 3,... MORE

The political difficulties and expenses Moscow will face if it seeks to more fully integrate Belarus (see EDM, September 10) are patently visible in the problems—albeit on a smaller scale—the Russian government has had over the past decade in its efforts regarding Abkhazia and South... MORE

*To read Part One, please click here. For now, the Belarusian authorities are holding out confidently against regime change on both fronts: against the domestic opposition and against Russia’s initial regime-change project. The latter could be seen lurking behind the thwarted presidential candidacies of Valery... MORE

Armenia’s and Azerbaijan’s armed forces are fighting over the disputed region of Karabakh. The two sides have been preparing for a renewed war over this territory since the May 1994 ceasefire agreement ended the previous hostilities, which the Armenians won, securing de facto control of... MORE

The Russian Armed Forces’ largest military exercise of the year, Kavkaz 2020, was held on September 21–23, in the southwestern part of the country (TASS, September 20). Although, officially, the Kavkaz maneuvers were presented as having nothing to do with Ukraine, some non-Russian experts warned... MORE

In August 2014, in retaliation against the West’s economic sanctions adopted to punish Russian aggression in southeastern Ukraine, Moscow introduced its own package of countersanctions. Kaliningrad Oblast (KO), traditionally heavily dependent on federal subsidies (Rambler.ru, November 9, 2018), was initially hit particularly hard by the... MORE

The Kremlin is conducting a regime-change operation in Belarus, the first-ever Russian operation of this type in its “near abroad.” Belarus’s presidential election campaign from May to August and the election‘s aftermath have provided the launching pad for this operation.  It is premised on the... MORE

Arriving at some clarity regarding the situation in Belarus has become harder than ever before. An unstable equilibrium begets a cacophony of opinions that do not lend themselves to generalization or to teasing out a common idea. Alexander Klaskovsky of Belapan writes, “[Presidents Alyaksandr] Lukashenka... MORE

Protests in Belarus and the fighting in Karabakh have upended relations between the Russian authorities and the leaders of Minsk and Yerevan. In the past, Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, despite generally acting in conjunction with Moscow, have nonetheless tried... MORE