Sergey Sukhankin
Dr. Sergey Sukhankin is a Senior Fellow at The Jamestown Foundation, and an Advisor at Gulf State Analytics (Washington, D.C.). He received his PhD in Contemporary Political and Social History from the Autonomous University of Barcelona. His areas of interest include Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea region, Russian information and cyber security, A2/AD and its interpretation in Russia, the Arctic region, and the development of Russian private military companies since the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War. He has consulted or briefed with CSIS (Canada), DIA (USA), and the European Parliament. His project discussing the activities of Russian PMCs, “War by Other Means,” informed the United Nations General Assembly report entitled “Use of Mercenaries as a Means of Violating Human Rights and Impeding the Exercise of the Right of Peoples to Self-Determination.” He is based in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Contact Sergey Sukhankin
Articles by Sergey Sukhankin
Russia Hopes to Use Caspian Sea Route to Evade Sanctions
Executive Summary: Moscow seeks to boost its struggling economy through increased development of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) as a real competitor to the Suez Canal and the Bosphorus...
After Prigozhin: The Anatomy of Russia’s Evolving Private Military and Mercenary Industry
Executive Summary: The Russian mercenary industry has transformed since Moscow’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 with private military companies (PMCs) and other paramilitary formations taking on a more prominent...
Russia Struggles for ‘Hearts and Minds’ in Global South (Part Two)
(Part One) Executive Summary Russian special services are actively disseminating disinformation to influence public opinion in Africa. The disinformation campaign replicates Soviet-era themes that emphasize narratives alleging the West’s compromising...
Russia Struggles for ‘Hearts and Minds’ in Global South (Part One)
Executive Summary: Russia uses anti-colonial narratives to build influence in Africa, leveraging historical grievances with Western imperialism and spreading disinformation. Putin claims that Africa is one of “Russia’s crucial and...
Russia Seeks to Strengthen Political Ties with Latin America in Struggle for Influence in Global South (Part Two)
(Part One) Executive Summary: Russia has launched efforts to gain support for its actions in Ukraine and confrontations with the West among Latin American countries, showing interest in Guatemala despite...
Russia Seeks to Strengthen Political Ties with Latin America in Struggle for Influence in Global South (Part One)
Executive Summary: The Kremlin is trying to strengthen ties with Latin American countries amidst political-economic isolation after the invasion of Ukraine. Russia hosted an inter-parliamentary conference with Latin American delegates...
Biden’s LNG Decision Sparks Hope for Russia’s Energy Industry
Executive Summary: The Biden administration's temporary pause on constructing new liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals has prompted Russian optimism about boosting its global LNG exports and exploiting internal divisions...
Russia Faces Spike in Crime and Alcoholism as War Nears Two-Year Mark
Executive Summary: Russia’s war against Ukraine has led to a surge in alcohol consumption in Russia, reaching 2.3 billion liters in 2023 and mirroring Soviet-era trends. The spike in alcoholism...
Russia’s Arctic-Based Oil Mega-Project Struggles to Attract Foreign Investors
Executive Summary: Russian officials have played up China’s interest in potentially investing in the Vostok Oil project, though significant challenges remain. The mega-project looks to enhance Moscow’s geopolitical ties with...
Kaliningrad’s Economy Buckles Under Sanctions
Executive Summary: Western sanctions have severely hurt Kaliningrad’s economy, particularly for cross-border transit, tourism, and fishing. The Kremlin has allocated increased subsidies to the region raising questions regarding the sustainability...
US Sanctions Hamper Russia’s LNG Strategy in the Arctic
In late December 2023, foreign investors for Russia’s Arctic LNG-2 project voiced their intentions to pull out from the initiative (Kommersant.ru, December 25, 2023). The development project on the Gydan...
Chinese PSCs: Achievements, Prospects, and Future Endeavors
Executive Summary Along with their clear internal (domestic) needs, Chinese private security companies (PSCs) have been spotted operating in virtually all major regions around the world. These entities currently play...
Russia Continues to Forcibly Recruit Prisoners and Migrant Workers for War in Ukraine (Part Two)
The Kremlin has broadened the recruitment of prisoners by the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and National Guard (Rosgvardia) in an effort to avoid launching a second wave of mass...
Russia Continues to Forcibly Recruit Prisoners and Migrant Workers for War in Ukraine (Part One)
Russia’s war against Ukraine has taken an unpleasant turn for Moscow. Instead of a speedy, triumphant victory, the Russian Armed Forces are effectively wasting human and material resources in the...
The Rise of Prison Labor in the Russian Economy
Moscow’s war against Ukraine has resulted in serious military and economic losses for the Russian Federation. The Kremlin has tried to mitigate the effect of stringent Western sanctions through a...
The Wagner Group Evolves After the Death of Prigozhin
The end of September and early October brought several important developments concerning the Wagner Group and its future. On September 27, a press officer for the Eastern Group of the...
Moscow Reconsiders the Wagner Group’s Role in Africa
On August 23, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the notorious Wagner Group who had earlier ventured on an aborted mutiny against the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) (see EDM, July 11),...
Chinese PSCs in MENA: The Cases of Iraq and (South) Sudan
Executive Summary In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), China is determined to continue expanding its footprint primarily using economic and business-related tools. Defense and security cooperation, for now,...
Prigozhin’s Failed Coup and the Future of Wagner in Sub-Saharan Africa and MENA (Part One)
On July 31, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the notorious Wagner Group that had attempted an unsuccessful mutiny resulting from conflict with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), stated, “At the...
China in Latin America and the Caribbean: Assessing Prospects for Chinese PSCs
Executive Summary Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) constitute a rather important, yet relatively new, area for Chinese interests. Beijing’s strategy in dealing with countries that comprise the macro-region (South...
The Anatomy of Prigozhin’s Mutiny and the Future of Russia’s Mercenary Industry (Part Three)
*Read Part One. *Read Part Two. Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny on June 23 and 24, which culminated in the Wagner Group’s de-facto capture of the city of Rostov-on-Don, highlighted the...
The Anatomy of Prigozhin’s Mutiny and the Future of Russia’s Mercenary Industry (Part Two)
*Read Part One. On June 23 and 24, the notorious Wagner Group and its founder Yevgeny Prigozhin conducted an unsuccessful revolt against the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and its...
Chinese PSCs in South Asia: The Case of Pakistan
Executive Summary Being the central pillar of Beijing`s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) strategy in South Asia, economic and investment activities in Pakistan pose a series of security risks and...
The Anatomy of Prigozhin’s Mutiny and the Future of Russia’s Mercenary Industry (Part One)
On June 23 and 24, the notorious Wagner Group—Russia`s most well-known quasi–private military company (a mercenary army)—headed by its chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, carried out the so-called “march for justice.” Its...
Jamestown Senior Fellow Sergey Sukhankin interviewed by Sveriges Radio regarding Ukrainian counteroffensive
On June 16, Jamestown Senior Fellow Sergey Sukhankin was interviewed by Sveriges Radio regarding the significance of Ukraine's counteroffensive and, in a wider context, what it means for the future trajectory...
Chinese PSCs in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Cases of Francophone and Lusophone Africa
Executive Summary Due to their wealth of critical natural resources (primarily rare earth minerals), rapidly growing populations (labor and consumer markets) and strategic geographic location, many Francophone and Lusophone countries...
Jamestown Senior Fellow Sergey Sukhankin interviewed by CBC on Wagner activities in Africa
On June 3, Jamestown Senior Fellow Sergey Sukhankin was quoted by Canadian outlet CBC regarding Wagner's activites in Africa and Prigozhin's possile aims on the continent. "Russia is using criminals,...
Chinese PSCs in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Anglophone Africa
Executive Summary China`s strategic interests in Sub-Saharan Africa are diverse and, while still being primarily guided by the need to maintain access to locally extracted raw materials, now go beyond...
Moscow Wants Russian Society to Pay for War in Ukraine (Part Two)
*Read Part One. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine is creating a myriad of problems for the Russian economy. While the Russian state budget is experiencing a deficit, the Russian...
Moscow Wants Russian Society to Pay for War in Ukraine (Part One)
Despite the Russian ruling elite’s optimism about the Russian economy “stepping into a positive trajectory of growth” (RIA Novosti, February 28), the real state of affairs in economic development may...
Going Beyond Mercenaries: Is Prigozhin Preparing for a Power Struggle in Russia? (Part Two)
*Read Part One. Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, launched on February 24, 2022, has elevated the public image and even popularity of the notorious Wagner Group and its...
Going Beyond Mercenaries: Is Prigozhin Preparing for a Power Struggle in Russia? (Part One)
Moscow’s war of aggression against Ukraine has caused a proliferation in the “privatization of force” in Russia (see EDM, February 27; February 28), with Yevgeny Prigozhin, the sponsor and founder...
The ‘Privatization of Force’ Presses on in Russia (Part Two)
*Read Part One. A February 7 press release from the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR) revealed that one of Russia`s largest energy...
The ‘Privatization of Force’ Presses on in Russia (Part One)
On February 7, the press service of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (GUR) issued a statement revealing that one of Russia’s largest energy companies,...
The Role of PSCs in Securing Chinese Interests in Central Asia: The Current Situation and Future Prospects
Executive Summary Despite China`s growing presence—especially in the realms of business and trade—in Central Asia, anti-Chinese sentiments and the overall level of suspicion toward Beijing have been on the rise....
Russo-Indian Economic Ties During Wartime: Oil, Currency and the Arctic
Following the launch Russia’s all-out war of aggression against Ukraine and growing international economic-political isolation, the Kremlin’s contacts with major regional and international powers have shrunk to three primary players:...
An Anatomy of the Chinese Private Security Contracting Industry
Executive Summary The re-emergence of the Chinese “security for hire” industry—which is deeply rooted in Chinese history and trade practices—is largely a result of the beginning of market reforms in...
A ‘Morgenthau Plan’ for Russia: Avoiding Post-1991 Mistakes in Dealing With a Post-Putin Russia (Part Three)
Click here to read Part One and Part Two. In Part Two, specific steps and initiatives were discussed that would constrain Russia’s military potential and mitigate militarism (see Part Two)....
A ‘Morgenthau Plan’ for Russia: Avoiding Post-1991 Mistakes in Dealing With a Post-Putin Russia (Part Two)
Read Part One here. As was noted by retired US Lieutenant General Ben Hodges (24tv.ua, November 9) and thoroughly explored by Jamestown Foundation Senior Fellow Janusz Bugajski in his new...
A ‘Morgenthau Plan’ for Russia: Avoiding Post-1991 Mistakes in Dealing With a Post-Putin Russia (Part One)
Moscow’s all-out war of aggression against Ukraine, which commenced on February 24, has vividly demonstrated that Russia’s militarism and drive toward colonial expansion has not disappeared. This has, in turn,...
The Contemporary Global ‘Security for Hire’ Industry: An Overview
Executive Summary Starting in the 2010s, the use of “security for hire” and paramilitary, non-state actors has been on the rise. Given its expanding geo-economic and geopolitical ambitions—best expressed by...
Creeping ‘Yuanization’ of the Russian Economy: Prospects and Implications
On September 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that, given mounting economic sanctions, full “de-dollarization” of the Russian economy is only a matter of time (RBC, September 12). Putin`s remark...
Gosplan 2.0: Is Russia Taking Another Step Toward a Planned Economy?
On July 15, speaking during a session of the Russian State Duma, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov elaborated on the need to take a turn “from absolutist market-type industrial policy...
Wagner PMC Recruits Russian Criminals and Convicts for War in Ukraine
On August 14, the Ukrainian town of Popasna (Luhansk Oblast) was hit by US-produced and Ukraine-operated M142 HIMARS complexes, reportedly causing severe damage to the locally headquartered private military company...
Russia’s Ferrous Metallurgy Industry Faces First Impacts of Economic Sanctions
On July 20, speaking at the annual assembly of manufacturers and entrepreneurs in Lipetsk Oblast, Vladimir Lisin, chairman of Novolipetsk Steel (NLMK)—first among Russia`s four steel-producing giants and one of...
Will Western Sanctions Drown Russia’s Gold Industry?
On July 14, both Western (Euractiv.com, July 13) and Russian (Rbc.ru, July 14) sources reported that the European Union’s seventh sanctions package will put an embargo on Russian gold imports....
Russia Pushes for Economic Mobilization Amid War and Sanctions
While Western economic sanctions are aggravating Russia`s business climate and leading toward its largest economic crisis since 1991, Russia is hoping to cope with the impending crisis by replacing vestiges...
War in Ukraine Transforms Russia’s Hydrogen Strategy Into Illusion
The Kremlin’s unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine and ensuing international economic sanctions targeting the Russian Federation have already damaged Russia’s non-renewable energy export capabilities, hitting both the oil and...
Russia’s War in Ukraine and Kaliningrad’s Final Farewell to the Gains of the Past
Moscow’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the ensuing international sanctions have particularly harmed Kaliningrad Oblast, a coastal exclave that is physically separated from Russia and wedged between two European...
Russia’s Arctic Strategy Melting Under the Scorch of Sanctions (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The unprovoked large-scale Russian military aggression against Ukraine, launched on February 24, is putting at risk the Kremlin’s ambitious plans related to economic...
Russia’s Arctic Strategy Melting Under the Scorch of Sanctions (Part One)
Two government documents—“On the development of the Arctic zone and ensuring national security until 2035” (Pravo.gov.ru, October 26, 2020) and “Energy Strategy 2035” (ES-2035) (Minenergo.gov.ru, accessed May 29, 2022)—outline Russia’s...
Agriculture as a Weapon: Russia’s ‘Second Front’ Against Ukraine
Russia’s unprovoked war of conquest against Ukraine, launched on February 24, is being fought on multiple fronts. Beyond the conflict’s conventional military aspect and the information war, Russia has now...
The Economic Aspect of Russia’s War in Ukraine: Sanctions, Implications, Complications (Part Three)
*To read Part One, please click here. *To read Part Two, please click here. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine pushed the world’s largest, most advanced economies to introduce several rounds of...
Jamestown Senior Fellow Sergey Sukhankin Interviewed by NZ Herald About War-Related Supply Chain Disruption
On April 23, the NZ Herald interviewed Senior Fellow Sergey Sukhankin regarding the Russo-Ukrainian war-related disruptions to global supply chains.
The Economic Aspect of Russia’s War in Ukraine: Sanctions, Implications, Complications (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. After Russia’s President Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 (Kremlin.ru, February 24), the Western economies introduce several rounds...
The Economic Aspect of Russia’s War in Ukraine: Sanctions, Implications, Complications (Part One)
Russia’s full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine, which commenced on February 24 (Kremlin.ru, February 24), pushed the world’s largest advanced economies to introduce several rounds of increasing economic sanctions against...
Russia’s War on Ukraine and China’s ‘(Un)Friendly Neutrality’
Commenting on Beijing’s official stance on Russia’s war on Ukraine, Li Keqiang, the premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, stated on March 11 that “China...
Alternatives to Russian Gas Supplies: Is LNG the EU’s Silver Bullet?
On February 27, speaking at the extraordinary assembly in the Bundestag, Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that Germany is planning to build two liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, in Brunsbüttel and...
Jamestown Senior Fellow Sergey Sukhanin Interviewed on BBC About Russian Mercenaries
A March 2 episode of the BBC program "5 Live Breakfast" features an interview with Senior Fellow Sergey Sukhankin regarding Russia's use of mercenaries in wars abroad.
Saudis in the Baltic: Can Poland Break Its Reliance on Russian Oil?
The period between late 2021 to early 2022 was marked by two crucial developments that could potentially enable a quick and sharp reduction in Poland’s energy reliance on Russia. Aside...
TAPI Pipeline Project and Stakeholder Interests: Business, Geopolitics or Both?
On November 1, Afghanistan’s minister of defense, high-level Taliban leader Mohammad Yaqoob, stated that he bears special responsibility for the safety, physical security and ultimate execution of the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI)...
Russian LNG Shipments to India: Strategic Implications and Long-Term Prospects
In late September, Russia’s first Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU)—specifically designed for emergency transportation of liquefied natural gas (LNG) via the Baltic Sea to Kaliningrad Oblast—successfully delivered its initial load...
Russia’s ‘Re-Exploration’ of Siberia and the Far East: Tools, Plans, Ambitions (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. During the Sixth Eastern Economic Forum (EEF-2021), hosted by the Far East Russian city of Vladivostok, on September 2–4 (see EDM, September 14),...
Russia’s ‘Re-Exploration’ of Siberia and the Far East: Tools, Plans, Ambitions (Part One)
In addition to other notable developments, the Sixth Eastern Economic Forum 2021 (EEF-2021), held on September 2–4, in Vladivostok (see EDM, September 14), unraveled an aspect that could have strategic...
Russian Mercenaries’ Potential Advent to Mali
According to various reports, members of Russia’s notorious Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) have been transported to Mali to render assistance to the local interim government (Rosbalt.ru, September 27). Given...
Sustainable Energy—A Hidden Agenda of Russia’s 2021 Eastern Economic Forum
The Sixth Eastern Economic Forum 2021 (EEF-2021), which convened delegations from 60 countries, took place on September 2–4, in Vladivostok, at the Far Eastern Federal University. A symbol of Russia’s...
Blind, Confuse and Demoralize: Russian Electronic Warfare Operations in Donbas
Executive Summary Electronic Warfare (EW) has historically been one of the key pillars of Russian/Soviet military might. Following the tumultuous period of internal crises in the 1990s, Russia managed to...
Senior Fellow Sergey Sukhankin Interviewed About Wagner Group’s Activities in Libya
An August 25 article in The New Arab quotes Jamestown Senior Fellow Sergey Sukhankin regarding Russia's continued interests in Libya and how it uses private military companies to secure those...
Hydrogen Production in Ukraine: Escape From Energy Dependency and a New Source of Revenue After Nord Stream Two
On June 19, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, speaking at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum, in Antalya, Turkey, underscored that the use of alternative energy sources will have strategic meaning for...
Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline: Russia’s Key to South Asia?
Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov and Pakistan’s ambassador to Moscow, Shafqat Ali Khan, signed a revised agreement on May 28 that initiates the construction of the planned Pakistan Stream Gas...
Senior Fellow Sergey Sukhankin quoted by Disruption Banking on Russian Northern Sea Route’s Environmental Impact
A July 22 article by Disruption Banking on the Russian Northern Sea Route cites Jamestown Senior Fellow Sergey Sukhankin, who points out that Russia's aging infrastructure and the political elite's...
Russia’s LNG Strategy: Foreign Competition and the Role of the Arctic Region
Earlier this spring (March 22), the Russian government adopted the “Long-Term Program on the Development and Production of LNG” (Government.ru, March 22). The document highlights the strategic role of the...
Senior Fellow Sergey Sukhankin Interviewed in Foreign Policy About Russia’s Wagner Group
On July 6, Foreign Policy published an analytic article about Russia's Wagner Group, investigating if such a private military unit indeed exists. The article included an explanation by Sergey Sukhankin,...
Russia’s ‘Green’ Agenda in Action: Economic Tools and Political Motivations (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The promotion of environmental sustainability by the world’s largest and most influential players has become one of the key issues determining the international...
Russia’s ‘Green’ Agenda in Action: Economic Tools and Political Motivations (Part One)
On April 19, during the presentation of a report compiled by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nations Secretary General António Guterres stated that 2021 would become crucial for fighting...
Russia’s Pivot to Asia (China) After 2014: The Wrong Turn?
Known as the “Pivot to Asia” and informally announced by Vladimir Putin in early 2012, Russia’s strategic (re)orientation to the Asian markets and China, in particular, seems to be failing...
Russia’s ‘Green’ Agenda in the Arctic and the Far East: Words vs. Deeds
On May 17, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin approved the concept of Moscow’s chairmanship of the Arctic Council (2021–2023) along with a plan of events. In particular, “the protection of...
Tajik-Kyrgyz Border Clashes and Russia’s Limited Role: Is the Region on the Brink of Geopolitical Change?
On April 29, a conflict broke out on Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan’s shared border in the fertile and heavily populated Fergana Valley region, purportedly to force Tajikistani border troops to dismantle...
Russian Naval Base in Sudan Stays for Now: What Happens Next?
Between late April and early May, several authoritative information outlets, including Al Arabiya (TASS, April 28) and local Sudanese sources (Sudan Tribune, May 3), argued that Sudan’s government had de...
Tracking the Digital Component of the BRI in Central Asia, Part Two: Developments in Kazakhstan
Introduction This is the second of a three-part series describing the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) growing digital presence in Central Asia—part of a larger project commonly referred to as...
Russia’s Defense-Industrial Complex at a Crossroads: Aura Versus Reality (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. President Vladimir Putin’s remarks about possibly nationalizing the Russian defense industry (DI) (Interfax, March 31) reinvigorated a debate on measures to optimize this...
Crimea: The Expanding Military Capabilities of Russia’s Area Denial Zone in the Black Sea
Two important and connected developments in the second half of April—military exercises in Crimea (RIA Novosti, April 22) and the wider growing tensions with Ukraine—cogently reiterated the military-political importance to...
Russia’s Defense-Industrial Complex at a Crossroads: Aura Versus Reality (Part One)
On March 31, during a virtual meeting with the Kremlin, the president of the Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia (FNPR), Mikhail Shmakov, proposed that any companies operating within...
The ‘Suez Jam’: A Window of Opportunity for Russia’s Northern Sea Route?
On March 23, the Suez Canal, one of the world’s busiest transport arteries, became blocked in both directions when the ultra-large Golden-class container ship Ever Given (operated by the firm...
Kremlin’s ‘Vaccine Diplomacy’ in Action: Tools, Strengths, Intermediary Results
Russian media contends that the domestically manufactured Sputnik V—a COVID-19 vaccine developed last year by the Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology—is the world’s second-most highly approved inoculation against...
Russia’s Non-Energy Exports Boom: A Not-so-Unequivocal Triumph?
According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation (Minselkhoz), the year 2020 set a new record for Russia’s exports of agricultural products. Cumulatively, the country exported 79 million...
Russia’s Digitalization of the Arctic Region: Plans and Achievements
The “Strategy for the Development of the Russian Arctic Zone and Provision of National Security Through 2035” (Pravo.gov.ru, October 26, 2020) highlights, among others, three crucial aspects. First, it de...
Russia’s New ‘Arctic Offensive’: Do the Benefits Outweigh the Costs? (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. On February 1, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed a decree approving the launch of six large investment projects in the Arctic that...
Russia’s New ‘Arctic Offensive’: Do the Benefits Outweigh the Costs? (Part One)
On February 1, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed a decree approving the launch of six major state-supported investment projects in the Arctic region. According to the document, Russia expects...
Tracking the Digital Component of the BRI in Central Asia, Part One: Exporting “Safe Cities” to Uzbekistan
Introduction Following the 2013 announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) at a speech given by People’s Republic of China President Xi Jinping during visit to Kazakhstan, Central Asia...
The ‘Wagner Affair’ in Belarus and Its Implications for Ukraine
At the end of last year, former Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko (June 2014–May 2019) announced in an interview that, back in 2018, he had initiated a special operation to detain...
The Belarus Factor in Kaliningrad’s Security Lifeline to Russia
Executive Summary Three decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, security ties between the Republic of Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast exclave remain linked in important ways, even as...
Russia’s Growing Military Presence in the Central African Republic
On December 22, 2020, Russia announced sending additional military instructors to the Central African Republic (CAR). Despite initial rejection, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) ultimately admitted the fact of...
The Second Karabakh War: Lessons and Implications for Russia (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russian experts and commentators have sought to draw key military lessons from the Second Karabakh War (September 27–November 9, 2020), which concluded...
The Second Karabakh War: Lessons and Implications for Russia (Part One)
The Second Karabakh War (September 27–November 9, 2020) resulted in a decisive military victory for Azerbaijan, which was actively supported by Turkey in the bloody conflict against Armenia. Since the...
Putin Approves Secret Russian Defense Plan for 2021–2025
On November 13, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree (ukaz) “On the Implementation of the Defense Plan of the Russian Federation for 2021–2025” (hereafter, the Plan), which will officially enter...
Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin Interviewed About Russia’s New Naval Base in Sudan
A November 25 article on The New Arab, covering Russia's planned new naval facility in Sudan, featured comments by Jamestown fellow Sergey Sukhankin.
Russia’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ Encounters New Difficulties
During his first trip to the Russian Far East as prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin berated the inadequate level of infrastructure of the local seaport in Magadan (on the Sea of...
Central Asia’s Specter of Insecurity: The View from Badakhshan to Fergana
Amid ongoing negotiations between the United States and the Afghan Taliban, the period between late September and November was marked by increasing violence in Afghanistan, which resulted in hundreds of...
Russia Pursues ‘Region-Oriented’ Approach in Arctic Development
On October 26, President Vladimir Putin formally adopted the “Strategy for the Development of the Russian Arctic Zone and Provision of National Security Through 2035,” which aims to implement a...
Russia Unveils New Arctic Development Strategy: Focal Points and Key Priorities
On October 26, President Vladimir Putin formally adopted the “Strategy for the Development of the Russian Arctic Zone and Provision of National Security Through 2035” (Pravo.gov.ru, October 26). The document...
The Phenomenon of Gulmurod Khalimov: Is Islamic State’s War Minister Really Dead?
Introduction On August 3, Tajikistan’s Minister of Internal Affairs Rahimzoda Ramazon announced that Gulmurod Khalimov was killed in an airstrike in Syria. This was later confirmed by Tajikistani nationals returning...
Kaliningrad Oblast and the ‘Sanctions War’: Genuine Progress or Avoidable Stagnation? (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. In response to Russia’s aggressive behavior and violation of Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty starting in 2014, Western countries imposed several packages of sanctions targeting...
Radio Sweden Interviews Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin About Russian PMCs
On October 17, SR International – Radio Sweden released an interview with Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin discussing Russia's private military contractors.
The Security Component of the BRI in Central Asia, Part Three: China’s (Para)Military Efforts to Promote Security in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan
Editor’s Note: This is the third installment of a three-part China Brief series about the Chinese government’s efforts to exert greater influence over regional security arrangements and policy in the...
Kaliningrad Oblast and the ‘Sanctions War’: Genuine Progress or Avoidable Stagnation? (Part One)
In August 2014, in retaliation against the West’s economic sanctions adopted to punish Russian aggression in southeastern Ukraine, Moscow introduced its own package of countersanctions. Kaliningrad Oblast (KO), traditionally heavily...
Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin Interviewed on Russian Oil Investments in Iraq
On September 23, The New Arab interviewed Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin regarding Russia's oil-sector investments in Iraq.
The Northeastern Dimension of Russia’s ‘Ocean Shield 2020’ Naval Exercises (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Between late July and August 31, forces from Russia’s Northern, Black Sea, Pacific and Baltic fleets took part in the large-scale Ocean...
The Northeastern Dimension of Russia’s ‘Ocean Shield 2020’ Naval Exercises (Part One)
Between August 3 and 31, forces from the four Russian fleets—Northern, Pacific, Black and Baltic—took part in the country’s annual “Ocean Shield” large-scale naval military exercises. Supervised by the Military-Maritime...
The Dark Side of Russia’s Youth Military-Patriotic Upbringing
Dating back to at least 1732, youth military-patriotic upbringing has historically been an integral aspect of the Russian/Soviet version of patriotism. And though the government’s support for such initiatives dipped...
The Security Component of the BRI in Central Asia, Part Two: China’s (Para)Military Efforts to Promote Security in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
Introduction Successfully realizing the ambitions of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will require the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to guarantee the protection of its workers, businesses, and critical...
Igor Strelkov-Girkin: The Rise and Fall of the Former Donetsk Minister of Defense
Introduction On June 25, the former Minister of Defense of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Igor Strelkov-Girkin (born December, 17 1970) admitted that “instead of bringing freedom to Donbass,...
Russia–African Union Consultations: Economics, Politics and Ideology
The first annual Political Consultations within the scope of the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum—a discussion format established following last year’s (October 23–24, 2019) inaugural Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi—took place on July...
Coal Strategy 2035: Is Russia Preparing for the Last War?
On June 13, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin approved a program for the development of the domestic coal industry until 2035 (Government.ru, June 14). The realization of the newly adopted...
The Security Component of the BRI in Central Asia, Part One: Chinese and Regional Perspectives on Security in Central Asia
Introduction On June 15, People’s Republic of China (PRC) Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng (乐玉成) held consultations via video with Turkmenistan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Vepa Hajiyev. During the meeting, two...
Russia’s Icebreaker Buildup: A Mixture of Geo-Economic and Military-Political Calculations
On July 6, the Russian shipbuilding complex Zvezda, LLC started construction on a Project 10510 (Lider) icebreaker. Upon its completion (scheduled for 2027), the first ship of this class, named...
Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin Interviewed by FT
The Financial Times interviewed Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin, on July 10, about the activities of Russian PMC Wagner Group in Libya.
Could the ‘Norilsk Disaster’ Be the Harbinger of a Looming Catastrophe in the Russian Arctic? (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. A disastrous fuel spill at the CHPP-3 combined heat and power plant in Norilsk (owned and operated by the Norilsk Nickel Group)...
Could the ‘Norilsk Disaster’ Be the Harbinger of a Looming Catastrophe in the Russian Arctic? (Part One)
On May 29, the Norilsk-based CHPP-3 combined heat and power plant, owned by the Norilsk-Taimyr Energy Company (a member of the Norilsk Nickel Group conglomerate), suffered the loss of a...
Wagner Group in Libya: Weapon of War or Geopolitical Tool?
Introduction On June 9, Russian Special Presidential Envoy for the Middle East and Africa Mikhail Bogdanov dismissed the presence of Russian mercenaries in Libya and their military support of the...
Is Russia Preparing to Challenge the Status Quo in Antarctica? (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The Antarctic Treaty System (ATS) has regulated the current status quo in Antarctica since it came into force in 1961. However, the...
Is Russia Preparing to Challenge the Status Quo in Antarctica? (Part One)
In his statement last January commemorating the 200th anniversary of the first Russian Antarctic expedition, President Vladimir Putin expressed admiration for “generations of Russians who have dedicated their lives to...
Newstalk Interviews Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin About Wagner PMC
On June 8, Newstalk (Dublin, Ireland) released a recorded interview with Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin discussing the Russian PMC Wagner Group.
Russia’s Energy Strategy 2035: A Breakthrough or Another Impasse?
On April 2, Russia adopted the “Energy Strategy 2035” (ES-2035) planning document (Minenergo.gov.ru, April 2). As noted by Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the country’s fuel and energy complex (FEC)...
The Asian Tigers in Russia’s Arctic: Unforeseen Favorites?
A number of countries in the Asia-Pacific region are looking at the Arctic as a potential engine to drive dramatic transformations in their most strategically important economic sectors, including energy,...
France to Lead Joint Effort in War on Terrorism in Sahel Region
Introduction Through 2019 into early 2020, the G5 Sahel Group (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger) has suffered painful losses caused by the activities of regional terrorist organizations. In January,...
Chinese Private Security Contractors: New Trends and Future Prospects
Introduction In addition to the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Support Base in Djibouti, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has indicated ambitious plans for future “strategic strong point”...
Looking Beyond China: Asian Actors in the Russian Arctic (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. While China remains the most active player among non-Arctic nations, other Asian actors, such as India (see Part One in EDM, May...
Russian PMCs and Irregulars: Past Battles and New Endeavors
Executive Summary Between 2014 and 2019, Russian mercenaries and irregulars have been spotted on three continents, and the number of countries where they have carried out operations is growing. Among...
Looking Beyond China: Asian Actors in the Russian Arctic (Part One)
Among the non-Arctic states seeking partnership with Russia as a means to increase their presence in the northern polar region, China has become by far the most visible player (see...
Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin Comments on Long-Term Pricing Trends
Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin was interviewed by 660 News, on May 7, regarding the likelihood that oil prices will ever rise back up to their pre-crisis levels.
Russian Inroads Into Central Africa (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Beginning in 2019, Russia intensified its outreach to some Central African countries—particularly, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Republic...
Russian Irregulars and PMCs in the ‘Heart’ of Europe: The Case of Kaliningrad Oblast
Executive Summary Despite looming socio-economic collapse in the 1990s, Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast managed—with extensive federal support—to overcome these difficulties. The policies aimed at support and recovery had little to do...
Russian Inroads Into Central Africa (Part One)
The Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum, held in Sochi on October 23–24, 2019 (see EDM, October 28, 2019), reaffirmed Russia’s growing interest in Central Africa. Among the countries comprising this...
Russia’s Arctic Agenda and the Role of Canada
New research (which includes two articles written by Russian experts) published by the prominent think tank the Canadian Global Affairs Institute has spurred interest and hopes in Russia’s expert community...
Completing the Arctic Shield: Russian Activities on Wrangel Island
On February 11, the head of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, Yevgeny Zinichev, stated that a series of Crisis Management Centers were being established in the Artic region in...
Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin Interviewed About Russian COVID-19 Disinformation
On April 1, CTV News interviewed Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin about his latest study, written for the Calgary School of Public Policy, on Russia spreading disinformation pertaining to COVID-19.
The Legalization of Ukrainian PMCs: Challenges and Opportunities
On February 3, the deputy secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Major General Serhiy Kryvonos, suggested the necessity to legalize private military companies (PMC) in Ukraine....
Terrorist Threat as a Pre-Text: Russia Strengthens Ties with G5 Sahel
Introduction Following the 1991 dissolution of the USSR—which maintained diplomatic relations with 46 African countries in the mid-1980s—the Russian Federation lost a large part of the Soviet influence on the...
The ‘Military Pillar’ of Russia’s Arctic Policy
On February 28, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that the Northern Fleet (NF) created an additional Air Defense (Voyska Protivovozdushnoy—PVO) division, ensuring that, “the Northern Sea Route [NSR] is...
Russia Steps up Efforts to Dominate Arctic Region
Moscow approved a number of policy decrees on January 30 that de facto establish a foundation for the introduction of a Russian Arctic strategy until 2035 (see EDM, February 11)....
Russia Prepares Ambitious Economic Strategy for Arctic Region
On January 30, the Russian government approved a number of acts concerned with rendering new economic benefits and subsidies to businesses or investors willing to engage in projects in the...
Continuation of Policy by Other Means: Russian Private Military Contractors in the Libyan Civil War
Introduction Since the outbreak of the Libyan civil war in 2011, Moscow has been trying to demonstrate a balanced and pragmatic approach — considered in Russian conservative circles to be...
Russian Mercenaries Pour Into Africa and Suffer More Losses (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. During a joint press-conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Moscow, on January 11, Vladimir Putin was asked about Russian mercenaries from...
Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin Quoted in The New York Times Article on Russian Mercenaries in Africa
Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin was quoted in a New York Times article today on growing Russian influence in Africa. Specifically, Russia is expanding its ties to Mozambique, which is facing...
Russian Mercenaries Pour Into Africa and Suffer More Losses (Part One)
Russian mercenaries have been intensifying their activities on the African continent since at least September 2019, though seemingly without much visible success. And it appears those slogging efforts are increasingly...
The ‘Hybrid’ Role of Russian Mercenaries, PMCs and Irregulars in Moscow’s Scramble for Africa
Executive Summary Russia’s “return” to Africa—preceded by a decade of near absence on the continent—is premised on two main aspects: 1) geo-economic interests (notably, securing rare natural resources possessed by...
Russian PMCs in the Syrian Civil War: From Slavonic Corps to Wagner Group and Beyond
Executive Summary Slavonic Corps Limited became Russia’s first and, in many ways, rather experimental “new type” private military company (PMC), concerned with tasks typically performed by private armies, such as...
The Kremlin’s Controversial ‘Soft Power’ in Africa (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. In the run up to and during the Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum, held in Sochi, on October 23–24 (see EDM, October 28),...
The Kremlin’s Controversial ‘Soft Power’ in Africa (Part One)
The Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum, held in Sochi on October 23–24, was presented as an event of great geopolitical and geo-economic importance (see EDM, October 28), explicitly showcasing the...
Russia Adopts National Strategy for Development of Artificial Intelligence
On October 10, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved the National Strategy for the Development of Artificial Intelligence (NSDAI) for the period until 2030. During the unveiling of the new strategy,...
The Three ‘Faces’ of Russia’s AI Strategy
On October 11, Russian President Vladimir Putin approved the “National Strategy for the Development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for the Period Until 2030.” The documents calls for “accelerated development of...
The Russia-Africa Summit: Soviet Mistakes and Fresh Challenges
The Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum, held in Sochi on October 23–24, is the first regional event of such magnitude ever hosted by the Russian Federation. While the main goals...
The Kremlin’s Two-Pronged Approach in Africa Ahead of the Russia-Africa Summit
The Russia-Africa Summit and Economic Forum (Interaffairs.ru, October 17), to be held in Sochi, on October 23–24, is expected to become a regular event of huge importance for Moscow (Summitafrica.ru,...
Russia Prepares a Foothold in Mozambique: Risks and Opportunities
Portuguese military journalist Nuno Felix tweeted, on September 8, that a group of Russian military personnel—not private military company (PMC) employees—had landed at the Nacala Airport, in Mozambique. The journalist...
Russian Spetsnaz in Norway: ‘Fake News’ Versus Facts
On September 27, AldriMer, a Norwegian information outlet specializing in military affairs, claimed that, according to its sources, “members of the Russian special services without any insignia and dressed as...
Foreign Mercenaries, Irregulars and ‘Volunteers’: Non-Russians in Russia’s Wars
Executive Summary The outbreak of instability in southeastern Ukraine witnessed Russia’s increasing reliance on ethnically non-Russian people. Among these, the most important groups included ethnic Serbs (this group primarily participated...
Russian Views of the Saudi Oil Facility Attacks (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The September 14 attack on the Saudi oil facilities at Buqayq and Khurais was allegedly committed by Yemen’s Houthi militants—although it was more...
Russian Views of the Saudi Oil Facility Attacks (Part One)
On September 14, Yemen’s Houthi militants claimed responsibility for an attack on crucial Saudi Arabian oil facilities in Buqayq and Khurais, which was carried out using a number of suicide...
‘Make Africa Safe’: Russia’s Competitive Advantage in Sub-Saharan Africa
On October 23–24, the southwestern Russian resort city of Sochi will host the first ever Russia-Africa Summit (Ravision2030.com, accessed September 14). Sharing his expectations of the upcoming event, Minister of...
Eastern Economic Forum Confirms Strong Foreign Interest in Russian Arctic Territories
Russia declared the fifth Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), hosted in Vladivostok, on September 4–6, to have been the most “fruitful” since the event’s creation: reportedly, 270 contracts were signed with...
Ukrainian ‘Footprint’ in the Libyan Civil War: Reality or Disinformation?
On August 6, an Ilyushin Il-76TD turbofan strategic airlifter owned by the Ukrainian airline SkyAviatrans LLC was destroyed at the Misrata International Airport, in northwestern Libya. The airport had been...
Unleashing the PMCs and Irregulars in Ukraine: Crimea and Donbas
Executive Summary The 2011 Arab Spring and the ensuing civil wars in Libya and Syria compelled Russia’s military-political leadership to reassess the role of irregular forces and non-state actors (as...
New Russian PMC Spotted in Syria: Potential Military Links and Implications
Speaking to the media on June 20, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that “when it comes to private security companies […] they are indeed present there [Syria]… However, they are...
Russia Emphasizes Non-Military Threats in the Arctic Region
In an article in the military-theoretical journal Voyennya Mysl, Russian Colonel Oleg Gavrilovstates that “on the basis of the analysis of national interests of Western countries in the Arctic region,...
Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin Appears on Episode of Stars and Stripes Podcast
Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin was the guest expert on the latest episode (#15) of the Stars and Stripes podcast "Force for Hire." Sukhankin discussed Russian private military companies (PMC) such...
Russia’s Belkomur Arctic Railway Project: Hope, Illusion or Necessity?
At the fifth annual gathering of the International Arctic Forum, hosted by St. Petersburg, Russia, on April 9–10, 2019, participants voiced two diametrically opposing opinions regarding the so-called Belkomur (Arkhangelsk–Syktyvkar–Kudymakar–Perm)...
‘Military Icebreakers’—Russia’s Trump Card in the Battle for the Arctic?
The United States Department of Defense released its new Arctic Strategy in early June (Defense.gov, June 6), and Russia’s leading information outlets responded by “reminding” that, by 2020, Moscow is...
From ‘Volunteers’ to Quasi-PMCs: Retracing the Footprints of Russian Irregulars in the Yugoslav Wars and Post-Soviet Conflicts
Introduction The collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), in 1991, was followed by a series of intense military conflicts that broke out along the Soviet periphery and...
Culture, Money, Propaganda: Russia’s Approach Toward Greenland and the Faroe Islands
To carry out its grand strategy in the Arctic, Russia relies on eroding the positions of other regional players. Denmark, a fellow member of the Arctic Council, is seen by...
‘Icebreaker Diplomacy’: Russia’s New-Old Strategy to Dominate the Arctic
Russia’s Baltic Shipyard (St. Petersburg) held a grand ceremony, on May 25, to celebrate the launching of the nuclear-powered Project 22220 (LK-60Ya) icebreaker Ural (Geoenergetika.ru, May 27, 2019). Following the...
Russian-Chinese Military Alliance in the Arctic: An (Im)Possible Prospect?
Speaking at the 11th Arctic Council Ministerial meeting in Rovaniemi, Finland, on May 7, US Secretary of State Michael Pompeo warned that the pattern of aggressive Chinese behavior in other...
Moscow as Beijing’s ‘Useful Partner’ in the Arctic Region
Speaking at the Belt and Road Forum, in Beijing (April 25–27), President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia is “considering a merger between the Northern Sea Route [the segment of the...
Russia’s Two-Pronged Approach to Militarizing the Arctic
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced, on April 19, that the Northern Fleet Joint Strategic Command (NF JSC), headquartered in Severomorsk, will receive the status of a separate military-administrative...
Russian Air Defense: Showcasing Achievements, Silencing Problems (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Historically, the Air and Missile Defense Forces (Voyska Protivovozdushnoy i Protivoraketnoy Oborony—PVO-PRO) have constituted one of the main strengths of the Soviet/Russian...
Russian Air Defense: Showcasing Achievements, Silencing Problems (Part One)
Several Russian mainstream information outlets along with military experts and officials have, in recent months, presented a long list of achievements that are purportedly raising the country’s Air and Missile...
The Russian State’s Use of Irregular Forces and Private Military Groups: From Ivan the Terrible to the Soviet Period
Introduction Russia’s growing employment of non-linear forms of warfare (including private military contractors) has long historical traditions. This paper seeks to discuss the main milestones of historical evolution of Russia’s...
Vega Strategic Services: Russian PMCs as Part of Information Warfare?
The Russian investigative agency Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) published a report, on March 28, stating that, in addition to private military armies, Russia has now created a Private Military Company...
Behind the Scenes of Russia’s Military Detachment to Venezuela
On March 23, a Russian defense ministry Ilyushin Il-62 passenger jet and an Antonov An-124 military cargo plane arrived at Simón Bolívar International Airport, having departed from the Chkalovsky military...
Russian Special Operations Forces: Image Versus Substance
Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated members of the country’s Special Operations Forces (SOF) on their professional day, February 27 (inaugurated in 2015), underscoring this service’s instrumentality in the “eradication of...
Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin Interviewed by BBC
Jamestown Research Fellow Sergey Sukhankin was interviewed by the BBC's "The Inquiry" podcast about Russian private military firm the Wagner Group.
War, Business and Ideology: How Russian Private Military Contractors Pursue Moscow’s Interests
Introduction The employment of private military contractors for achieving specific geo-political/economic objectives is by no means new for Russia: dating back to the 16th century,[1] this phenomenon (while changing names...
‘Special Outsider’: Russia Joins the Race for Global Leadership in Artificial Intelligence
On February 26, the industrial director of the Rostec State Corporation, Sergey Abramov, declared that work on the fourth generation of the Ratnik future infantry combat system is underway. The...
Another Step Forward Toward ‘Sovereign’ Russian Internet
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov talked with Russian journalists on Wednesday, February 27, following news reports in the United States claiming that US Cyber Command had actively hacked and briefly taken...
Syrian Experience Provides New Impetus for Russia’s UAV Strategy (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. A popular saying among Russian military historians is that “the AK-47 is a weapon of the proletariat” due to this automatic assault rifle’s...
Syrian Experience Provides New Impetus for Russia’s UAV Strategy (Part One)
On January 21, Sergey Chemezov (the CEO of the Russian arms producer Rostec) announced that, by mid-2019, Russia’s Armed Forces would receive 200 units of Pishal “radio-electronic guns” and Ratnik...
Are Russian Mercenaries Ready to Defend Venezuela’s Maduro?
Mass anti-government protests that erupted this month in major Venezuelan cities apparently already claimed the lives of at least 29 protestors. The country’s embattled president, Nicolás Maduro, has defined the...
The Kremlin’s Game in the CAR: What Does the Façade Conceal?
The minister of national defense of the Central African Republic (CAR), Marie-Noëlle Koyara, stated, on January 10, that a Russian military base might soon be created in the country (Business-gazeta.ru,...
Russia Boosts Kaliningrad’s Military Capabilities by Emphasizing the UAV Component
Commenting on remarks from early December 2018 by Vice Admiral Andrew Lewis, the commander of the United States Second Fleet, that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) knows how to...
From ‘Turn to the East’ to ‘Greater Eurasia’: Russia’s Abortive Search for a Far East Strategy
On November 14, Dmitry Peskov the press secretary for the president of Russia, stated, “I am not a supporter of the theory that Russia is making some sort of drift...
With ‘Azov Debacle’ as Pretext, Russia Further Militarizes Crimea and Obstructs Passage Through Northern Sea Route
The November 25 “incident” in the Black Sea involving Russia’s illegal seizure of three Ukrainian military vessels and their personnel—in actuality, an explicit violation of the norms of international maritime...
Revolt of the ‘Disgruntled’: Russian Mercenaries Seek Justice in International Courts
A story that started on July 5, when the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly (a national war veterans’ organization) demanded that Moscow legalize so-called Private Military Companies (PMC) (see EDM, August 1)...
The Russian Emergency Situations Ministry: ‘Ministry of Corruption’ or Driver of the Kremlin’s ‘Soft Power?’
On October 25, the 82nd (and largest to date) humanitarian convoy organized by Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Situations (MChS) delivered 700 tons of humanitarian aid to “the residents of the...
China’s ‘Polar Silk Road’ Versus Russia’s Arctic Dilemmas
An article published on October 5 by the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) discusses Russia’s strategy in the Arctic region and the evolving role of China therein (Russiancouncil.ru, October 5)....
Russian PMCs, War Veterans Running ‘Patriotic’ Youth Camps in the Balkans (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. The infamous affair involving a Russian “patriotic” youth camp in Zlatibor, Serbia, which was shut down by the local police in August 2018,...
Russian PMCs, War Veterans Running ‘Patriotic’ Youth Camps in the Balkans (Part One)
On August 16, the Serbian Ministry of Internal Affairs shut down the “Zlatibor” youth camp, where 44 adolescents (aged 14–23) had been learning a wide range of paramilitary skills, including...
Russia’s New Competitor: Could Ukrainian PMCs Halt Russian Advance?
The heavy casualties suffered in early 2018 in Syria by the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company (PMC) working for the Kremlin, turned international experts’ attention to these groups...
Russian PMCs in Yemen: Kremlin-Style ‘Security Export’ in Action?
On September 6, Russian military correspondent Semen Pegov posted information on his Telegram-channel WarGonzo (WG) about “members of one Russian Private Military Company [PMC] being currently deployed in Yemen.” He...
Kyiv and Budapest Approaching a Dangerous Crossroad
An intense dispute between Hungary and Ukraine sparked by the notorious “language question” and fate of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine (see EDM, July 17) has now received powerful new...
Moscow Pushes Own Approaches to Cyber Security on Rest of CSTO
Russian military strategists who have analyzed regional military conflicts between 1999 and 2014 conclude that even a less-developed party may be able to at least partly degrade the technological advantage...
The Arctic ‘Trilistnik’—Russia’s Bid for Regional Military Superiority
Russia’s Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu announced at the end of August that one of the main tasks of the Russian Armed Forces is the protection of the country’s national...
Will Nicaragua Become Russia’s ‘Cuba of the 21st Century?’
The victory of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) in the summer of 1979, made Nicaragua an essential element of the Soviet Union’s zero-sum competition against the United States in...
Russia’s New PMC Patriot: The Kremlin’s Bid for a Greater Role in Africa?
The All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, a national war veterans’ organization, published a document, on July 5, urging government officials to legalize so-called Private Military Companies (PMC). The document was signed by...
Russia to Use Irregular Forces Against ‘Hybrid Threats’: The Case of Kaliningrad
The so-called “Arab Spring” and subsequent mass-protest-driven developments in the Middle East as well as across the post-Soviet space have alarmed Russian military strategists. In Moscow, the notion of “hybrid...
Hungary Seeks to Block Ukraine From Euro-Atlantic Integration Over Controversial Language Issue
On July 12, during the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) summit in Brussels, Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó stated that his country would not support Ukraine’s...
‘Continuing War by Other Means’: The Case of Wagner, Russia’s Premier Private Military Company in the Middle East
Summary The Wagner Group is a Russian private military company that has been active in Ukraine and Syria. In early 2018, reports of the combat deaths of over 200 Wagner...
Slavic Brotherhood 2018: Applying the Syrian and Donbas Experience to the Balkans?
During June 18–28, Russia’s southern city of Novorossiysk (Krasnodar Krai) hosted the trilateral joint tactical military exercise Slavic Brotherhood 2018, at the Raevsky training center (Tvzvezda.ru, June 26). Observed by...
Fellow Sergey Sukhankin Interviewed by The Republic
The Republic interviewed Russia expert Sergey Sukhankin on the geopolitical role Kaliningrad plays for the Kremlin, including during the World Cup.
Against Background of World Cup, Russia Restores Nuclear Potential of Kaliningrad
Russia’s Kaliningrad Oblast is currently hosting several of the games of the World Cup soccer championship, but this Baltic exclave has recently attracted widespread attention for an entirely different reason....
Russia’s Push for Militarization of the Arctic Continues
In 2015, speaking before the Federation Council (the upper chamber of the Russian parliament), Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin accused the West of “inflaming anti-Russian propaganda” related to Russia’s alleged...
Moscow Throws Oligarchs Lifeline in Form of ‘Offshore’ Zones in Kaliningrad and Vladivostok
On April 9, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev asked his Cabinet for specific measures to alleviate the consequences of the economic sanctions the United States passed (on April 6—see EDM, April...
Grandiose Victory Day Parade in Kaliningrad Tainted by Another Corruption Scandal
Kaliningrad oblast, the westernmost region of the Russian Federation, celebrated the 73rd anniversary commemorating the end of World War II on May 9, Victory Day (Newkaliningrad.ru, May 9). Similar to...
Russian GLONASS: Success Story or Mirage?
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin informed President Vladimir Putin, on April 24, that the country’s Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) is finally able to finance itself without state support....
Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin Interviewed by Business Insider
On April 27, Business Insider interviewed Jamestown Fellow Sergey Sukhankin regarding Russia's use of private military companies in Syria and Africa.
Beyond Syria and Ukraine: Wagner PMC Expands Its Operations to Africa
The terrible defeat suffered by forces of the Wagner Group private military company (PMC) at Deir el-Zour (Syria), in early February 2018 (see EDM, February 15, 20, April 19, 23),...
War, Business and ‘Hybrid’ Warfare: The Case of the Wagner Private Military Company (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. On March 28, Russian media presented information that members of the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner may have been spotted in the...
War, Business and ‘Hybrid’ Warfare: The Case of the Wagner Private Military Company (Part One)
On March 27, the Russian government watered down the Duma bill proposing to legalize Private Military Companies (Chastnye Voennie Company—PMC) (Interfax, March 27). The parliamentary initiative was unanimously rejected by...
Is Russia on the Doorstep of the Seventh Military Revolution?
Army General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, presented his reflections on future conflicts, on March 24. Notably, he argued that “the enemy’s...
The FSB: A Formidable Player in Russia’s Information Security Domain
The long-running legal conflict between the Federal Security Service (FSB) and Telegram Messenger Limited, a cloud-based instant messaging service created by Pavel Durov, finally seemed to come to an end...
Russian Defense Ministry to Use Social Networks to Select Soldiers
Despite having banned its contract soldiers (kontraktniki) from using online social networks (VKontakte and Odnoklassniki, in particular) (see EDM, October 20, 2017), the Russian Ministry of Defense has not dismissed...
Military Psychology—New Pivot of Russian Military Strategy
The Russian Duma (the lower chamber of the Russian parliament) adopted a law, on February 21, introducing requirements for a mandatory psychological evaluation for those who aspire to join the...
‘Trial of the Decade’: Spain Declares War on Russian Organized Crime
On February 19, after a decade of investigations, Spanish prosecutors finally launched a major trial against notable members of the Russian mafia operating in the Iberian country. All in all,...
The End of ‘Hide and Seek’: Russian Iskanders Permanently in Kaliningrad
On January 31, Colonel Anatoliy Gorodetskiy, commander of the 152nd Missile Brigade based in Chernyakhovsk (Kaliningrad Oblast), claimed that the infrastructure necessary to host the Iskander-M mobile ballistic missile system...
Russia Embarks on Military Buildup in the Far East
The Russian government stated, on February 1, that units of the Aerospace Forces (Vozdushno-Kosmicheskiye Sily—VKS) are to be located on Iturup Island (southern end of the Kurile Islands chain, disputed...
The S-400–Pantsir ‘Tandem’: The New-Old Feature of Russian A2/AD Capabilities
The Pantsir (NATO classification: SA-22 Greyhound), produced by the Russian Military Industrial Complex, is a unique mobile short- to medium-range surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery weapon system that has no...
Russian ‘Offshore Aristocracy’ in Southern Europe: Seeking Safe Havens or Exporting Corruption?
On January 10, Maltese authorities revealed that 730 prominent Russian businessmen and politicians (along with their families) have acquired Maltese citizenship (Gov.mt, December 22, 2017). The list contains the names...
Russian Forces in Syria Under Attack: Implications and Expectations
The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation announced, on January 4, 2018, that the Russian Armed Forces stationed at the Khmeimim airbase, in Syria, were attacked by “a group...
Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Kaliningrad to Become ‘Special’ Again
Having lost its Special Economic Zone (SEZ) status on April 1, 2016, Russia’s westernmost region, Kaliningrad Oblast, has once again demonstrated an inability to cope with mounting economic challenges. Meanwhile,...
Merging Practice and Theory: Is Russia Planning Major Reform in Electronic Warfare Domain?
Russia’s most recent advancements in Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities (see EDM, September 8; July 19) were again underscored in remarks delivered last month by the chief of the General Staff,...
Russia Pours More Military Hardware Into ‘Fortress Crimea’
According to the chief of the General Staff of Russia, Valery Gerasimov, in the last five years Russia has profoundly increased its military presence in key regions of the world,...
Russia Introduces EW Spetsnaz to Western Military District
Russian authorities have created the first specialized Electronic Warfare (EW) unit tasked with countering unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). The unit is to be based on the territory of Kursk oblast,...
Russia’s Changing Military-Strategic Perceptions of Kaliningrad Oblast Between 2013 and 2017
Last September’s massive strategic-level Zapad 2017 exercise provided analysts and observers with a number of important conclusions about the state of Russia’s military readiness, capabilities and Russian military thought (see...
Russia Bans Its Contract Soldiers From Online Social Networks, Prepares to Accept Foreign Citizens in the Army
The Russian Ministry of Defense published a legislative proposal, on October 4, that introduces a number of critical changes to the law “On the status of military personnel” (RBC, October...
Is Kaliningrad on the Brink of Inter-Ethnic Conflict?
Rather unexpectedly, Kaliningrad oblast—Russia’s westernmost, physically detached region on the Baltic coast—experienced a surge in inter-ethnic tensions arising from discrimination directed at the local Islamic community. On September 19, a...
Russian Trace in the Catalonian Referendum: Is a ‘Spanish Spring’ Possible?
The Spanish region of Catalonia held a referendum on self-determination yesterday (October 1), which was forcefully contested by the central government in Madrid and resulted in hundreds injured in skirmishes...
‘Syrian Lessons’ and Russia’s ‘Asymmetric Response’ to the US
The Russian military operation in Syria has highlighted “urban warfare,” information security and electronic warfare (EW) as crucial elements of how Moscow envisions the “wars of the future” will be...
Kaliningrad Oblast: Russia’s Testing Ground for ‘Warfare of the Future?’
Russia watchers had collectively identified Kaliningrad as a serious anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) “bubble” by 2016 (see EDM, October 12, 2016; Neweasterneurope.eu, August 2, 2017). Now, this westernmost Russian region may be...
Jamestown Analyst Sergey Sukhankin Interviewed by Rzeczpospolita
Frequent contributor to EDM Sergey Sukhankin was interviewed, on August 31, by the Polish daily Rzeczpospolita about the breadth of Russian hacking capabilities.
Russia Tests EW Capabilities Ahead of Zapad 2017
The development of electronic warfare (EW) capabilities is a strategic priority for Russia (see EDM, July 19). And Moscow’s preparations for the upcoming Zapad 2017 war games (September 14–20) have...
Russia Launches ‘Summer Offensive’ in the Domain of Information and Cyber Security
The Russian parliament (Duma) adopted a piece of legislation, on July 21, which virtually outlaws anonymous communication over Internet-based instant messengers (IM) (Rosbalt.ru, July 21). The new law forces all...
Zhuravka–Millerovo Rail Bypass: A Threat to Ukraine’s National Security?
Russian media announced, on July 14, that the new (122.5-kilometer) railway connection between the southwestern Russian towns of Zhuravka and Millerovo will be completed by mid-August (Rzdp.ru, July 14). Originally,...
Russian Capabilities in Electronic Warfare: Plans, Achievements and Expectations
Russia’s Radio-Electronic Technologies Group (KRET), part of the state-owned high-technology corporation Rostec, announced on June 10 that “work on a new gadget that can imitate a group of jets, rockets...
Slavic Brotherhood 2017—A Road to Zapad 2017?
Belarus hosted the trilateral military exercise Slavic Brotherhood 2017, on June 6–14, bringing together Armed Forces personnel from Russia, Belarus and Serbia (Vsr.mil.by, June 16). The maneuvers were headed by...
European Response to Russia’s Disinformation and Cyber Aggression: Reaction or Strategy?
On June 14, during the first international Global Cybersecurity Summit, in Kyiv, the secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, Oleksandr Turchynov, stated that “Ukraine has become a...
Yandex: Tool of Russian Disinformation and Cyber Operations in Ukraine
The recent decision by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to ban popular Russian social networks VKontakte (VK) and Odnoklassniki, on May 15 (see EDM, June 7), provoked serious debate both inside...
Ukraine Blocks Russian Social Networks: Anti-Democratic Move or Antidote to Disinformation?
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko signed a decree, on May 15, introducing a new package of sanctions against Russian companies and individuals (President.gov.ua, May 15). However, it was the decision to...
Russian Electronic Warfare in Ukraine: Between Real and Imaginable
The outbreak of war in the Donbas region (April 2014) turned Ukraine into one of the main targets of Russian information warfare, information-psychological operations, as well as cyberattacks and electronic...
Russia Adopts New Strategy for Development of Information Society
Following the adoption of a new Information Security Doctrine, in December 2016 (see EDM, December 16, 2016), Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently approved a new Strategy for the Development...
Russian ‘Cyber Troops’: A Weapon of Aggression
Speaking to the Russian parliament (Duma) last February, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu announced the creation of “information operations troops” (“cyber troops”) within the Armed Forces. He emphasized that...
‘Catch up and surpass’: Russia Claims to Have Tested Hypersonic Missiles
Recent events in Syria seem to have spurned Russia into more decisive action when it comes to upgrading its military capabilities. In part, these Russian efforts appear to be focusing...
Russian Agitprop Pervades Central and Eastern Europe
The outbreak of the mass EuroMaidan street protests in Kyiv (2013) and Russia’s subsequent aggression against Ukraine convinced the Kremlin of the need to project Russian “soft power” to blunt...
Russian National Guard: A New Oprichnina, ‘Cyber Police’ or Something Else?
Created in April 2016, the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia—see EDM, April 7, 11, 12, 18, 2016) is turning into a much more formidable weapon in the hands of the Kremlin...
Ukraine’s Information Security Doctrine: A Breakthrough or the Veneer of Change?
On February 25, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko approved an Information Security Doctrine to address this specific subset of the “numerous national security threats faced by Ukraine” (President.gov.ua, February 25). In...
Ukraine Showcases Advanced New Air-to-Ground Rocket Munition
Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced, on February 11, that Ukroboronprom (a state-owned association of multi-product enterprises in the defense industry) has successfully tested a new type of domestically produced air-to-ground...
Russia Sells S-400 Complexes to China: Smart Move or a Mixed Blessing?
Russia’s S-400 Triumf (NATO classification: SA-21 Growler) air-defense weapons system appears to be generating ever greater interest among a number of potential customers around the world, including China, India, Turkey...
Russia on the Verge of a ‘Cyber Purge?’
The Russian State Duma (lower house of parliament) adopted a new set of laws, on January 27, aiming to “protect critical infrastructure of the Russian Federation against hacker attacks” (Rosbalt.ru,...
Lithuania: The Old-New Target of Russian ‘Hybrid Warfare?’
With the end-of-year Holidays only weeks away, the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius became inundated with highly provocative leaflets disseminated by the Embassy of the Russian Federation (Dayonline.ru, December 12, 2016)....
Ukraine Upgrades Military Potential With New Tanks, Missiles
Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine, starting in 2014, has naturally had a galvanizing effect on the Ukrainian military-industrial complex and its potential. According to various sources (see below), this progress...
Counter-Containment: Russia Deploys S-400 Complexes to Crimea
Franz Klintsevych, a high-ranking member of the Russian Federation Council (upper house of parliament), denounced the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), on January 8, for their...
Russia’s New Information Security Doctrine: Fencing Russia from the “Outside World”?
On December 6, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the new Information Security Doctrine (Pravo.gov.ru, December 6), replacing the old one that was adopted in 2000, at the start of his...
Europe Seeks Consolidation in the Face of Cyber and Information Threats by Russia
On November 23, the European Parliament adopted a non-binding resolution aimed at consolidating the European countries in countering Russian propaganda and preventing cyber attacks. The resolution included strong language stressing...
Russia Beefs up Its Offensive Cyber Capabilities
The Russian mass media (with a reference to the Reuters news agency) reported, on November 11, that Russian hackers launched a series of cyberattacks against analytical centers and think tanks...
Russia’s ‘Youth Army’: Sovietization, Militarization or Radicalization?
In addition to concrete steps aimed at upgrading Russian military capabilities, Moscow has launched a vigorous campaign promoting the cult of the military within Russian society, particular focusing on younger...
HIV Epidemic Spreads in Russia
Russian media reported, on November 2, that the Russian city of Yekaterinburg has been hit by an epidemic of HIV. Tatiana Savinova, first deputy director of local healthcare, stated that...
Russia Playing Catch-Up in Cyber Security
On October 19, the Russian Ministry of Defense finalized the creation of a special communications system (“closed segment data transfer”) that can function autonomously from the global Internet (Izvestia.ru, October...
Russia Flexes ‘Iskander’ Muscles on Its Northwestern Flank
Over the past several months, Russian has been ramping up military activities on its northwestern flank (see EDM, July 11). This was most recently underscored by the intensification of Moscow’s...
The ‘Prussian Curse’ on Kaliningrad Governors Remains Unbroken
On July 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin relieved the governor of Kaliningrad Oblast, Nikolay Tsukanov, of his duties (Krpress.ru, July 29). Tsukanov’s temporary replacement, Major-General Evgeny Zinichev, used to head...
Russia’s Western Flank: A Mighty Pillar or a Headache? (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. Russia’s posture in the Baltic Sea region appears contradictory: a declarative prioritization of this flank—including by deploying Iskander theater ballistic missiles to Kaliningrad...
Russia’s Western Flank: A Mighty Pillar or a Headache? (Part One)
The end of June 2016 featured two noticeable events that might alter Russian posture in the Baltic Sea region: Moscow resurrected its threats to deploy Iskander-M ballistic missiles to Kaliningrad...
Drawing the ‘Cyber Curtain’: Will Russia Follow the Chinese Example?
RT-Inform, a firm owned by the Russian non-profit state corporation Rostec, announced, on June 9, the creation of a protected instant messenger (IM) application designed for use by Russian companies...
The Baltic Sea Region: A New ‘Powder Keg?’
During the first half of this month (May 2–19), Estonia is hosting one of the largest military exercises in its post-Soviet history—“Spring Storm 2016” (Delfi, May 2). These war games...
Kaliningrad as a ‘New Ideological Battlefield’ Between Russia and the West
On April 12, Igor Nikolaychuk, the head of the Department of Regional Security Problems at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, traveled to Russia’s Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, where he...