Michael Horton
Michael Horton is a fellow for Arabian Affairs at The Jamestown Foundation. Horton has completed in–depth field–based studies on a range of subjects and issues related to security and development in the Middle East and Africa for the public and private sectors. He has briefed senior members of the U.S. National Security Council, the U.S. State Department, the British Foreign Ministry, British Ministry of Defense, as well as members of the British Parliament and U.S. Congress. Michael is a co–founder of Red Sea Analytics International (RSAI).
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Articles by Michael Horton
Will Al-Shabaab Respond to Somaliland’s Red Sea Agreement with Ethiopia?
Executive Summary Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) granting Ethiopia access to build a naval base on Somaliland's coast. This was offered in exchange for Ethiopia recognizing...
Calibrated Escalation: The Yemen-based Houthis’ Threats Against Israel and Red Sea Shipping
Since the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the Houthis have launched volleys of cruise missiles and armed drones toward Israel (Middle East Monitor, December 7). Thus far, however, none...
Can the SAF Defeat the RSF in Sudan?
Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are nimble, capable, and self-financing. These three factors combined with the fact that corruption and cronyism have hollowed out their primary rival, the Sudanese Armed...
Hot Issue – Yemen’s Fragmented Future
Executive Summary: The Yemeni Civil War has ground on for eight years now, with the Houthi rebels controlling a majority of the country, and the power of the Internationally Recognized...
Competition for Access and Influence Heighten Geopolitical Rivalries in the Horn of Africa
The competition between regional and global powers for access to—and influence in—the Horn of Africa is intensifying. The Horn is Asia’s and the Gulf’s door to Africa’s vast natural resources....
A Profile of Jaal Marroo: The Leader of Ethiopia’s Oromo Liberation Army
Jaal Marroo is the nom de guerre of Kumsa Diriba, who currently commands the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). Marroo has been a commander in the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) since...
The Window for a Negotiated Settlement in Ethiopia’s War is Closing as the Country Faces Protracted Civil War
On November 22, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced that he was leaving the capital, Addis Ababa, for the frontlines of the country’s civil war (Addis Standard, November 22). This...
Ethiopia’s Tigray Defense Forces Advance Toward Addis Ababa
Ethiopia’s Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) are carrying out yet another successful counter-offensive against the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and its allies. The current counter-offensive, which is coordinated with the...
Yemen’s Houthis Close in on Marib
After a brief lull in fighting, the rebels of the Yemeni Houthi movement, Ansar Allah, are closer than they have ever been to surrounding Marib city. The city, which is...
Somaliland Elections Disrupt al-Shabaab’s Regional Expansion
On May 31, the independent, but unrecognized, Republic of Somaliland held parliamentary and local district elections. These internationally observed elections, which saw a high turnout of 1.1 million registered voters...
Tigray Defense Forces Resist Ethiopian Army Offensive as Sudan, Eritrea, and Ethnic Militias Enter the Fray
After nearly seven months of fighting, the war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region shows no sign of abating. Instead, the highly predictable has occurred: the war has metastasized into a grinding...
Will New Sanctions Slow Down Houthi Commanders Mansur al-Saadi and Ahmad al-Hamzi in Yemen?
On March 2, the United States imposed sanctions on two senior military commanders of the Houthi organization: Mansur al-Saadi, chief of staff of the Houthis’ Navy and Ahmad al-Hamzi, commander...
Yemen’s Emerging Political Coalitions: A First Step Toward De-escalation?
Politics in Yemen are best described as kaleidoscopic. Loyalties, alliances, and linkages within and between factions and parties shift with every rotation of the cell. Most of Yemen’s ever-increasing number...
Yemen’s Fate Hinges on The Battle for Marib
In early February, Yemen’s Houthis—also known as Ansar Allah—began a renewed push to capture the oil and gas rich Marib governorate and its capital of the same name (Arab News,...
Debretsion Gebremichael: The Leader Behind the Rebellion in Tigray
Before the conflict in Tigray began on November 4, not many people outside of the region had heard of Debretsion Gebremichael. The 57-year-old leader of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front...
How War in Ethiopia Impacts Red Sea and Horn of Africa Power Politics: The Battle in Tigray and Beyond
Ethiopia is a key prize in the scramble for influence and power in the Horn of Africa and broader Red Sea region. With its natural resources, population of 110 million,...
Hot Issue – Is the War in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region Ending or Only Just Beginning?
Executive Summary: Despite early claims of victory by the Ethiopian government, its war against the Tigray based Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) shows no signs of ending. Instead, the TPLF,...
Yemen’s War Tests Oman’s Neutrality: Focusing on the Saudi Footprint in al-Mahra
Neutrality is one of Oman’s greatest assets. Under the leadership of the late Sultan Qaboos bin Said, Oman successfully navigated the fall of the Shah in Iran, the Cold War...
Briefs
Fighting Escalates in Yemen’s Port City of Hodeidah Michael Horton For months, the port city of Hodeidah has enjoyed relative calm compared with much of war-torn Yemen. This has changed...
Will Egypt Send Troops to Libya?
On July 20, the Egyptian Parliament authorized the deployment of Egyptian armed forces outside of the country. The bill made no mention of Libya (Arab News, July 21). Nonetheless, the...
No Foothold for al-Shabaab in Somaliland
The tempo of al-Shabaab’s operations in Somalia has steadily increased, despite a dramatic escalation in U.S.-led drone strikes in Somalia. In July alone, al-Shabaab targeted the head of Somalia’s military...
Gateway to Yemen: The Battle for the Tihama
Yemen’s Tihama region runs the length of the country’s Red Sea coast, from the port of al-Mocha to the Saudi border. It encompasses some of Yemen’s most productive agricultural lands...
Hot Issue – The Houthi Art of War: Why They Keep Winning in Yemen
Executive summary: After five years of war against the Saudi-led coalition and its allies, Yemen’s Houthi rebels remain defiant and are once again on the offensive. The Houthis’ keen understanding...
Is Nigeria Losing the War Against Terrorists in Borno State?
There are few places as conducive to insurgency and terrorism as Borno state in northeastern Nigeria. Grinding poverty, ethnic and religious tensions, illicit networks, environmental degradation, porous international borders, and...
Yemen’s Wildcard General—An Updated Profile of Brigadier Tariq Saleh
Tariq Saleh, the nephew of former Yemeni President Ali Abdulla Saleh, is a proverbial wild card in Yemen’s interconnected wars. The former commander of Yemen’s now defunct Presidential Guard controls...
Saudi Arabia’s Heavy-handed Approach to Tribesmen will Backfire
On April 16, Saudi security forces admitted that they shot and killed Abdul Rahim al-Howeiti, an outspoken critic of Muhammad bin Salman’s plan to build a new megacity called Neom...
Hot Issue – Is This the Beginning of the End of the War in Yemen?
Executive Summary: Defeats, plummeting oil prices, and a global pandemic are forcing Saudi Arabia to rethink its involvement in Yemen. Ironically, the end of overt Saudi involvement in Yemen may...
Arms from Yemen will Fuel Conflict in the Horn of Africa
Arms trafficking via the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea has a long history. However, the wars in Yemen and the vast number of arms and materiel provided by...
The Houthis’ War to Lose: The Battle for Marib
Yemen’s Houthis have defied the forecasts of numerous analysts who predicted that their grip on northwest Yemen would erode. Rather than being weakened, Houthi and allied forces are stronger and...
Whither al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula?
On January 29, an airstrike killed Qasim al-Raymi, the “emir” of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Al-Raymi, who assumed the leadership of AQAP in 2015, has been reported dead...
Hot Issue – The Race for Bases, Ports, and Resources in the Horn of Africa Heats Up
Executive summary: The battle for access and influence in the Horn of Africa is intensifying as the Gulf States, Turkey, and China race to secure footholds. At the same time,...
Hot Issue – War Without End in Yemen: The Saudi-UAE Rivalry to Prolong the Conflict
Executive Summary March 26th marked the end of the fourth year of the Saudi led war in Yemen. Four years of devastating aerial bombing and tens of billions of dollars have...
Settling Scores – The Death of USS Cole Attack Accomplice Jamal al-Badawi
Long-time al-Qaeda operative Jamal al-Badawi was killed in what U.S. military officials called a “precision airstrike” on January 1 in the Yemeni governorate of Marib (al-Jazeera, January 6). Al-Badawi was...
What the Battle for Hodeidah Means for Yemen and the Region
On June 13, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, in conjunction with their Yemeni allies, launched “Operation Golden Victory.” The grandiosely named offensive is aimed...
Which Way Forward for al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula?
Beginning in February, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and its proxies launched sequential offensives against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in the southern Yemeni governorates of Hadramawt and Shabwah....
Guns for Hire: How al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula Is Securing Its Future in Yemen
The outgoing director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Nicholas J. Rasmussen, said in a recent interview that Yemen “continues to be one of the most frustrating theaters in our counterterrorism...
[Hot Issue] Does Saleh’s Death Mark the Beginning of the End for Yemen’s Houthi Rebels?
On December 4, Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen’s former president, was assassinated by Houthi rebels. Saleh’s death was precipitated by his attempt to end his alliance with the Houthis. His assassination...
No Exit for Saudi Arabia: The Kingdom’s War in Yemen
It has been more than two and half years since Saudi Arabia began its war in Yemen. The campaign named “Operation Decisive Storm” was supposed to be a short, sharp...
Is the Hasm Movement the Future of Militancy in Egypt?
Egypt’s Hasm Movement has released a review of its activities over the course of the first year of its operations. From July 16, 2016 to July 16, 2017, Hasm claims...
Drone Warfare in Yemen: A Catalyst for the Growth and Evolution of AQAP
The first known targeted assassination using a drone took place in Yemen on November 3, 2002. The drone launched a hellfire missile that struck a Land Cruiser carrying six suspected...
Reclaiming Lost Ground in Somalia: The Enduring Threat of al-Shabaab
Over the last 12 months, al-Shabaab has markedly increased the tempo and sophistication of its attacks on a range of soft and hard targets in Somalia, the semi-autonomous region of...
Yemen: A Dangerous Regional Arms Bazaar
Yemen is the second most heavily armed country in the world after the United States. Before the current civil war began, there were an estimated 54 guns for every 100...
The Battle for Yemen: A Quagmire for Saudi Arabia and the UAE
The Saudi- and Emirati-led war in Yemen has been ongoing for 26 months. The war, which began on March 26, 2015 and was ambitiously named “Operation Decisive Storm,” has achieved...
Why Egypt’s Nationalist Hasm Movement Could Gain Greater Traction
Egypt’s government, led by President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, is battling multiple insurgent groups, and while the Islamic State (IS) affiliate Wilayat Sinai is by far the most formidable, it is...
Why Islamic State Has Failed to Expand in Yemen
Conditions in Yemen appear to be ideal for the expansion of an insurgent organization like Islamic State (IS). All the normal vectors for the spread of the virus of militant...
Al-Shabaab: Why Somalia’s al-Qaeda Affiliate Wants Puntland
In contrast to the abundance of forecasts that predicted the weakening and eventual demise of al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda affiliated group is resurgent in many parts of Somalia. This resurgence is...
An Unwinnable War: The Houthis, Saudi Arabia and the Future of Yemen
Saudi Arabia and its allies are engaged in an unwinnable war in Yemen. The Saudi-led campaign called “Operation Decisive Storm” began in March 2015 with the aim of forcing Yemen’s...
AQAP in Southern Yemen: Learning, Adapting and Growing
During the nearly two years of the Yemeni civil war, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has gone from an organization that was under pressure and struggling financially, to an...
Capitalizing on Chaos: AQAP Advances in Yemen
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has more men, is better equipped and funded, and holds more territory than at any time in its history. The only point at which...
The Houthis’ Counter-Offensive in Yemen: Strategy, Aims and Outcomes
After seven months of military operations in Yemen, Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners are facing a counter-offensive by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. The Houthis—who refer to themselves as Ansar Allah—and...
The Hadramawt: AQAP and the Battle for Yemen’s Wealthiest Governorate
More than three months of intense aerial bombardment by Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners have left much of Yemen in ruins. Few places in the country are not experiencing...
Abdul Malik al-Houthi: Yemen’s Most Powerful and Most Wanted Man
Abdul Malik al-Houthi is the most wanted man in Yemen. He is also the most powerful man in Yemen, at least for now. The reclusive and enigmatic leader of Yemen’s...
Hot Issue: The Battle for Southern Yemen
Executive Summary On March 25, Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners launched air strikes and implemented a naval blockade against Yemen to weaken Yemen’s Zaydi Shi’a Houthis and to reinstall...
Tribes, Salafists and Separatists: Yemen’s Changing Political Landscape
While parts of President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s regime attempt to ensure their survival, Yemen’s multitude of opposition, tribal, and newly formed anti-government groups continue to vie for a role in...
Yemen Without President Ali Abdullah Saleh
Following the bombing of a mosque located within the walls of the Presidential Palace on June 3, Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, along with five other ranking government officials who...
South Yemen’s Pacifist General: A Portrait of Brigadier Nasser al-Nuba
Background While international attention is currently focused on anti-government protests and factional fighting in Yemen, since 2007 south Yemen has been the scene of large and often efficiently organized anti-government...
Yemen’s Hadramawt: A Divided Future?
Executive SummaryNow in its fourth month of anti-government protests, Yemen is faced with the breakdown of central state authority and the danger of territorial fragmentation. This separatist threat is especially...
Filling the Void: The Southern Mobility Movement in South Yemen
Executive Summary:The Southern Mobility Movement (SMM) of south Yemen, an umbrella organization for many secessionist oriented groups in the south, is using the increasing weakness of the Salih government and...
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Challenges and Opportunities in Revolutionary Yemen
The wave of revolutionary unrest spreading across the Middle East poses a host of new challenges and possibilities for Salafist inspired militant groups like al-Qaeda. The calls for democracy, fair...
A Profile of Major General Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar: Yemen’s Dark Horse
Yemeni Major General Ali Muhsin al-Ahmar announced on March 21, 2011 that he was joining anti-government protesters in their calls for Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down (Mareb...
The Unseen Hand: Saudi Arabian Involvement in Yemen
Executive Summary:The future of Yemen is inextricably linked to the stability and security of Saudi Arabia. With key figures in Yemen defecting to the opposition – including the ambassador to...
Special Report from Yemen: Escalation of Violence Moves Yemen Closer to Civil War
In the early hours of Saturday, March 12, Yemeni security forces under the direction of Yemen’s Central Security Service (CSS) (which is commanded by Yahya Salih and is home to...
Special Report from Yemen: A Dangerous Impasse between the Salih Regime and Anti-Government Demonstrators
As anti-government protesters, whose numbers continue to swell, call for an escalation of demonstrations, Yemeni President Salih reiterated his intention to stay in office until the presidential election in 2013....
Special Report from Yemen: The Looming Threat of Tribal War
On February 28, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Salih announced his offer to form a national unity government that would be composed of members from all of Yemen’s opposition parties. The...
Anti-Government Protests in Yemen: An Opportunity for Unity or a Catalyst for Further Unrest?
Special Report from Yemen
The Tribes of Yemen: An Asset or Impediment to Stability? Part Two
Since responsibility for the “underwear bomber” and “toner bombs” was claimed by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the focus on the growth of al-Qaeda-linked organizations in Yemen has intensified....
The Tribes of Yemen: An Asset or Impediment to Stability? Part One
“The tribes are Yemen and Yemen is the tribes,” is a saying that is often repeated by Yemenis from the north central highlands where the tribe and tribal life are...
The Return of Ali Salim al-Beidh: The Leader of Yemen’s Southern Secessionist Movement
In May 2009, Ali Salim al-Beidh officially reentered Yemeni politics with a speech addressed to his former constituents in southern Yemen. In the speech, al-Beidh called on southern Yemenis to...
The Growing Separatist Threat in Yemen’s Hadramawt Governorate
Hadramawt, located in eastern Yemen, is the country's largest governorate. While the Hadramawt is a vast province that encompasses roughly 38,000 square miles, it is thinly populated with less than...
Round Seven? The Houthi Rebellion in Northern Yemen
Houthi rebels operating in northern Yemen accepted the six conditions that were set by the government of Yemen for a cessation of hostilities on February 12. [1] In response to...
Yemen’s Dangerous Addiction to Qat
Yemen faces an abundance of complex and interrelated social, economic, and environmental problems. Yemen's many challenges are compounded by the country's addiction to qat. Large parts of Yemen’s society and...
Back From the Grave: The Re-emergence of Houthi Rebel Leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi
Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the resilient leader of the Houthi rebellion in northwestern Yemen, was reported dead by a number of regional newspapers in the Arab realm as well as the...