Ilgar Gurbanov
Ilgar Gurbanov is a Baku-based independent analyst on energy security issues.
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Articles by Ilgar Gurbanov
Turkmenistan’s Gas Exports Hampered by Geopolitical Realities
On August 12, during the Caspian Economic Forum in Turkmenistan, Russia and Iran expressed their discontent regarding the long-proposed Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCP) project (see EDM, September 4). Russian Prime...
Azerbaijan’s Military Exercises Send Defiant Message to Armenia
The armed forces of Azerbaijan and Turkey conducted two late-spring joint exercises, around Baku (on May 1–3) and in the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan (June 7–11). The goal of these...
Azerbaijan and NATO Mark 25 Years of Partnership
On May 4, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a press release to mark the 25th anniversary of the country’s partnership with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), calling...
Azerbaijan and the EU Prepare to Finalize a New Partnership Agreement
On April 4, during a meeting, in Brussels, of the European Union–Azerbaijan Cooperation Council, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov emphasized that the two sides “are very close” to reaching a...
Karabakh Peace Talks Break Down as Azerbaijan and Armenia Operate at Cross-Purposes
Late 2018 to early 2019 was marked by a number of positive developments as peace talks intensified between Armenia and Azerbaijan regarding the Karabakh conflict. Last December, Azerbaijani President Ilham...
Azerbaijan Deepens and Expands Its Partnerships With International Arms Suppliers
On January 10, Azerbaijan displayed its new Tufan (“Storm”)–class patrol ship for the country’s State Border Service. The vessel features Israeli-made navigational, monitoring and radio-telecommunication devices as well as advanced...
The Broader Security Context of Azerbaijani-Belarusian Ties
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev traveled to Belarus on November 19 (see EDM, December 6). During his visit, both governments signed a number of key agreements, including regarding the supply of...
Despite US Sanctions on Iran, Green Light for the Southern Gas Corridor
The United States’ Federal Register published the “Iranian Transactions and Sanctions Regulations” on November 5, re-imposing US sanctions on Iran (Federalregister.gov, November 5). This expected action by Washington had raised...
Azerbaijan Hosts Defense-Industry Exhibition and Courts Multiple Defense Partners
On September 25–27, the Ministry of Defense Industry of Azerbaijan (MoDIAR) hosted the defense-industry exhibition ADEX-2018 in Baku, where leading defense companies from European and Asian countries showcased their latest...
Caspian Convention Signing and the Implications for the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline
The governments of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran and Turkmenistan gathered in the Kazakhstani port city of Aktau, on August 12, and signed the Convention on the Caspian Sea’s Legal Status....
Azerbaijan Raises Military Vigilance in Response to Armenia’s Unclear Karabakh Policy
During a July 20 press conference, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reiterated his maximalist position on the Karabakh conflict and called for “deter[ring] Azerbaijan from provocations” (Lragir.am, July 20). The...
Azerbaijan’s Cooperation With the EU: A Pragmatic Focus on the Benefits
During the June 22 Eastern Partnership (EaP) meeting in Minsk, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov outlined his country’s key areas of cooperation with the European Union and said the two...
Azerbaijan’s Acquisitions of New Missile Systems From Belarus and Israel: The Domestic and Regional Context
On June 11, Azerbaijan unveiled its newly-acquired Polonez multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS, with a range of 300 kilometers) and LORA ballistic missile complexes (400 km), purchased from Belarus and Israel,...
Aggravated Situation Around Azerbaijan’s Nakhchivan Exclave
An Azerbaijani soldier stationed in the country’s large western exclave of Nakhchivan was killed, on May 20, during a combat mission while suppressing enemy provocations coming across the border from...
Factors Contributing to Azerbaijan’s Growing Domestic Military Industry
Azerbaijan’s Defense Industry (DI) Minister Yaver Jamalov said, on April 27, that 89 percent of domestic DI output during the first quarter of 2018 was made up of special-purpose defense...
Southern Gas Corridor Raises Significant Financing, but Still Faces Provocations
On February 6 and March 15, the European Investment Bank (EIB) allocated loan packages of €1.5 billion ($1.8 billion) and €932 million ($1.14 billion) to complete the construction of the...
Azerbaijan Seeks to Enhance Military Cooperation With Iran
Iranian Defense Minister Amir Hatami visited Azerbaijan, on February 21, to discuss the expansion of military cooperation (technical, medical, educational, joint defense industry), regional stability, as well as Caspian security...
Difficult Geopolitics of the Caspian Complicate Potential Energy Projects
The foreign ministers of the five littoral Caspian states—Azerbaijan, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran—met in Moscow, on December 5, 2017, to try to finalize an agreement on the legal status...
Azerbaijan, Belarus Pursue Military Cooperation
Azerbaijan’s Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov visited Belarus, on October 9–10, and toured local defense-industry enterprises to review modern military equipment that could help boost the capabilities of the Azerbaijani army...
Interaction with Turkish Air Forces Boosts Azerbaijan’s Air-Combat Capability
The Azerbaijani and Turkish Air Forces conducted joint flight-tactical exercises in Azerbaijan, on September 18–30, with the involvement of combat/transport aircraft and helicopters. Such systematic joint exercises help foster greater interoperability...
Azerbaijan’s Defense Minister Visits Israel, as Bilateral Ties Grow Stronger
Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov paid a visit to Israel, on September 11, to discuss cooperation in the military and military-technical spheres with the host country’s leading defense industry enterprises....
The Potential Impact of New US Sanctions Law on Pipeline Projects Connecting Europe and Eurasia
While expressing some “concerns,” United States President Donald Trump signed the “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act,” on August 2 (Whitehouse.gov, August 2)—legislation that was overwhelmingly approved by the US...
Strategic Partnership Agreement: A New Chapter in EU-Azerbaijan Relations
On June 13–14, the European Union and Azerbaijan held another round of talks on the Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA). Those ongoing discussions were first inaugurated on February 6, with the...
Propaganda Against Trans-Adriatic Pipeline Continues Under ‘Environmental Concerns’
On April 6, Italy’s Lazio Regional Administrative Court (LRAC) suspended the environmental impact permit for the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which would have allowed for the relocation of olive trees that...
Suspension of Azerbaijan’s EITI Membership: Repercussions for the Southern Gas Corridor
The International Board of Directors (BoD) of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) suspended Azerbaijan’s membership in the coalition. The decision came during the BOD’s 36th meeting (on March 8–9),...
Southern Gas Corridor Seeks Financial Backing Amidst Volatile Oil Prices
During the third ministerial meeting of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) Advisory Council, held in Baku, on February 23, the European Commission’s vice president for the Energy Union, Maroš Šefčovič,...
Injecting Russian Gas Into TAP: Downgrading Importance of Southern Gas Corridor
For the first time ever, Gazprom officially expressed interest in using the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) to deliver Russian gas to Europe (Trend, January 24). During the European Gas Conference in...
TAP’s Fate After the Italian Referendum
On December 4, a referendum in Italy rejected the sweeping constitutional reforms proposed by the government, ultimately resulting in the resignation of Matteo Renzi from the prime minister’s post. One...
Azerbaijan’s SOCAR Interested in Buying a Stake in Georgia’s Oil & Gas Corporation
The finance minister of Georgia, Dimitri Kumsishvili, recently announced that the Georgian government is considering selling a 25 percent stake in the state-owned Georgian Oil & Gas Corporation (GOGC) on...
Perspectives for Israeli Gas in Southern Gas Corridor Hampered by Economic Limitations
Israeli Ambassador to Azerbaijan, Dan Stav, announced, on November 6, that his country was “considering the possibility to transport its natural gas to Europe via the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas...
SOCAR’s Complicated DESFA Deal Faces New Setbacks
Rovnag Abdullayev, the head of Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR), told reporters on September 5 that his company is waiting for an explanation from the Greek government for its violation...
Russia Pushes ‘Gas Swap’ Plans With Iran Amidst Azerbaijan-Iran Gas Talks
The Presidents of Azerbaijan, Russia and Iran—Ilham Aliyev, Vladimir Putin and Hassan Rouhani, respectively—met in Baku, on August 8, and signed a Joint Declaration committing their countries to deepening cooperation...
Turkey-Russia Rapprochement and Prospects for ‘Turkish Stream’
On June 27, Russian President Vladimir Putin received a letter from President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, expressing Turkey’s willingness to restore ties with Russia (Kremlin.ru, June 27). Immediately, Gazprom...
Southern Gas Corridor Gains New Momentum
Work on the Southern Gas Corridor’s (SGC) implementation intensified to an unprecedented degree in recent months. On March 17 and May 17, the ground breaking ceremonies of two key constituent...
Four-Day Karabakh War Highlights Threats to Energy Security on NATO’s Southeastern Flank
The periodic escalation of violence in and around the separatist Azerbaijani territory of Karabakh routinely raises concerns about this conflict’s threat to regional energy security and pipeline infrastructure. However, few...
Falling Oil Prices and Its Implications for Azerbaijan’s Gas Policy
On February 23, Azerbaijan’s parliament adopted amendments to the state budget to adjust down expected budget revenues based on oil price estimates of as low as $25 per barrel (Azernews.az,...