Igor Torbakov
Igor Torbakov is a Senior Researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in Helsinki. A trained historian, he specializes in Russian and Eurasian history and politics. He was a Research Scholar at the Institute of Russian History, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow; a Visiting Scholar at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington DC; a Fulbright Scholar at Columbia University, New York; a Visiting Fellow at Harvard University; and a Fellow at the Swedish Collegium for Advanced Study in Uppsala, Sweden. He holds an MA in History from Moscow State University and a PhD from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences.
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Articles by Igor Torbakov
Commentary: The Russia-Ukraine Gas Crisis: The Big Picture
By now it should be clear that there is no quick fix for the current Europe-wide energy debacle caused by the vicious Russian-Ukrainian spat. Behind the seemingly intractable dispute over...
The Georgia Crisis and Russia-Turkey Relations
*Click here to order a copy of this report online!* The August 2008 Russia-Georgia war has triggered some major shifts in regional geopolitics. The Caucasus crisis also directly affected the...
WILL ECONOMIC SANCTIONS BECOME A LEGITIMATE TOOL OF RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY?
Russian lawmakers appear to have confirmed the Kremlin’s move to legitimize economic sanctions as an established instrument of the country’s increasingly muscular foreign policy. The jury is still out, however,...
MOSCOW OFFERS ANKARA EXPANDED COOPERATION IN ENERGY SPHERE
As both Russia and Turkey are increasingly dissatisfied with the nature of their relations with the West, the two Eurasian countries appear intent to further develop their bilateral cooperation. Continuing...
STRENGTHENING THE “EASTERN VECTOR”: ANKARA HOSTS TURKIC SUMMIT
Leaders of Turkic nations are meeting today, November 17, in Turkey’s Mediterranean resort city of Antalya. This first summit of Turkish-speaking peoples in five years appears to reflect Ankara’s ongoing...
KREMLIN CONTINUES ATTEMPTS TO DIVIDE EUROPE
Trying to create a rift within the European Union, Russia wants the international community to condemn some of the bloc’s new members that allegedly discriminate against certain categories of their...
SCRAMBLE FOR EURASIAN ENERGY RESOURCES INTENSIFIES
As their perspectives on energy security continue to diverge, the Kremlin and Western powers appear to be engaged in a fierce competition over Eurasia’s enormous hydrocarbon resources. At the heart...
UKRAINE’S GEOPOLITICAL PREDICAMENT: WHILE LONGING FOR PLACE IN UNITED EUROPE IT CANNOT IGNORE RUSSIA’S CONCERNS
This week’s events confirmed that Ukraine is being pulled in two directions as it faces a strategic dilemma. On the one hand, Kyiv is pushing for associated membership with the...
EUROPE STRUGGLES TO THWART RUSSIA’S DIVIDE-AND-CONQUER POLICY
Today, October 20, leaders of the European Union countries gathered in Lahti, Finland, to try to forge a common Russia policy so that they can speak with a single voice...
EUROPE’S PATRONIZING ATTITUDE TOWARD TURKS CAN PUSH ANKARA CLOSER TO MOSCOW
Turkey’s prospects of becoming a full-blown member of the European Union are again seriously endangered -- this time by a fierce row with France over the “Armenian genocide” bill. According...
RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN ROW COULD SERIOUSLY SOUR RUSSIA-WEST RELATIONS
The latest crisis in the chronically uneasy relationship between Moscow and Tbilisi is not likely to fizzle out any time soon, as the positions of the two sides appear to...
PAUSE IN ENLARGEMENT CREATES STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY IN EUROPE AND RUSSIA’S COMMON NEIGHBORHOOD
An imminent halt in the European Union’s eastward expansion will create a new geopolitical reality in Russia and the EU’s overlapping neighborhoods. This week Brussels made two key decisions. First,...
RUSSIAN PUNDITS WARY OF ANKARA’S REVIVED GEOPOLITICAL AMBITIONS IN EURASIA
The suggestion to form a Turkish commonwealth among Turkic-speaking countries voiced at the recent gathering of leaders of Turkic states in Turkey’s seaside resort city of Antalya appears to reflect...
THUS SPAKE PUTIN: RUSSIA UPHOLDS PRINCIPLE OF EQUALITY IN ENERGY SPHERE
Russia is aggressively seeking to revise the rules of the game on global energy markets. The Kremlin leadership asserts that, in today’s world, energy producers cease to be hapless raw-materials...
RUSSIAN ENERGY MAJORS EYE DIRECT OUTLET TO MEDITERRANEAN
Russia’s ambitious attempts to cast itself as the principal energy supplier to world markets explain the new deal on an oil pipeline linking the Black Sea with the Aegean. During...
LITHUANIAN REFINERY IS STRUGGLING TO STAY AFLOAT DESPITE RUSSIAN PRESSURE
Russia’s state-run monopoly Transneft has warned that it might indefinitely shut down the pipeline feeding Lithuania’s largest oil refinery, Mazeikiai Nafta. At the end of July, Transneft stopped providing crude...
MOSCOW MANEUVERS TO FORCE EUROPE TO ACCEPT ITS TERMS OF ENERGY COOPERATION
Moscow appears to be stepping up efforts to impose its own rules of the game on West European consumers of Russian hydrocarbons. The latest deal between Russian and Algerian state-controlled...
YUKOS BANKRUPTCY: THE BIG PICTURE
A court decision declaring Yukos -- once Russia’s largest oil company -- bankrupt has finally brought to an end the sad story of confrontation between private business and a powerful...
RUSSIAN ENERGY MONOPOLIES MARCH TOWARD HYDROCARBONS EMPIRE
The latest moves by Russia’s major state-controlled energy companies have clearly demonstrated that “expansion” and “control” are still the words that best describe the Kremlin’s preferred “mode of operation.” On...
CIS SUMMIT: GATHERING WILL LIKELY FLOP BUT MOSCOW IS INTENT TO CONTINUE THROWING ITS WEIGHT AROUND
The Kremlin appears determined to prove that Russia is back as a world-class superpower. Immediately after the pomp and fanfare of the St. Petersburg G-8 summit on July 15-17 --...
ST. PETERSBURG G-8 SUMMIT: MOMENT OF TRUTH IN RUSSIA-WEST RELATIONS
Most analysts have already predicted that the summit of the Group of Eight (G-8) most industrialized nations that will convene in St. Petersburg on July 15-17 will likely be long...
RUSSIA AND WEST APPEAR SET TO CLASH OVER UKRAINE
The Kremlin and the West have ratcheted up their rhetoric over NATO’s possible expansion into Ukraine. The strategically located East European state appears destined to remain an apple of discord...
RUSSIA-TURKEY RELATIONS: COOPERATION AND COMPETITION IN ENERGY SPHERE
Both Moscow and Ankara appear intent on further developing their lucrative energy ties. At the same time, Russia and Turkey are destined to continue vying for the role of major...
RUSSIA, EUROPE DRAW BATTLE LINES IN THEIR DISPUTE OVER ENERGY
After the discussions at the latest Russia-European Union summit laid bare the growing disagreements between Moscow and the European bloc over how to guarantee "energy security" to the Old Continent's...
PUTIN’S NEW DEAL: KREMLIN PLAYS UP NATIONALIST CARD
The annual address Russian President Vladimir Putin gave to the Federal Assembly on May 10 has already been billed by some Kremlin spin-doctors as Russia's version of the New Deal...
KREMLIN PONDERS MEANING OF EAST EUROPEAN SUMMIT
The exceptionally harsh criticism of Russia's behavior by the senior Western representatives at this week's Vilnius summit of Eastern European countries has undoubtedly rattled the Kremlin leadership. But the big...
Kurdish Unrest Escalates in Turkey’s Southeast
The issue of national security appears to be again coming to the forefront of Turkish politics. The continuing infiltration of Kurdish insurgents into Turkey from Iraq, the clashes between the...
KREMLIN TRIES TO CONVINCE WARY WEST THAT STRONG GAZPROM IS GOOD FOR IT
Several seemingly disparate events that occurred this week -- U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's talks in Greece and Turkey, Russian President Vladimir Putin hosting German Chancellor Angela Merkel in...
EUROPE REJECTS GAZPROM’S ULTIMATUM
The European Union signaled that it was not particularly impressed by Gazprom's recent statement that it might seek alternative markets elsewhere if it is prevented from developing operations in Europe....
RUSSIAN PUNDITS SAY WORLD COMMUNITY DOES NOT HAVE LEVERAGE OVER IRAN
The Iranian leadership's announcement that Tehran has successfully enriched uranium prompted two types of reaction among Russia's analytic community. Most nuclear experts flatly dismiss Iran's overly triumphant claims, arguing that...
RUSSIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH CHALLENGES “WESTERN” CONCEPT OF HUMAN RIGHTS
In its persistent efforts to craft a new national ideology that would underscore Russia's "civilizational uniqueness" and distinguish it from the liberal West, the Kremlin leadership has turned to the...
RUSSIAN STRATEGISTS PONDER POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS OF UKRAINIAN POLL
As Ukrainian political forces are engaged in tough backstage bargaining to form a ruling coalition in the newly elected parliament, Russia is warily eyeing its western neighbor's political scene following...
U.S.-RUSSIA RELATIONS: GROWING RIFT OVER EURASIA’S DEMOCRATIZATION
The unveiling of the latest version of the White House's National Security Strategy and the Kremlin's sharp reaction to the blueprint laid bare the growing divergence of American and Russian...
RUSSIAN REACTION TO MILOSEVIC’S DEATH REVEALS RIFT BETWEEN KREMLIN AND THE WEST
The controversy over the death of former Yugoslav strongman Slobodan Milosevic laid bare the deep-seated uneasiness in relations between Russia and the West. The Kremlin appears bent on taking advantage...
TURKEY SIDES WITH MOSCOW AGAINST WASHINGTON ON BLACK SEA FORCE
Ankara and Moscow joined forces to reject the U.S. administration's proposal to expand a NATO-led Mediterranean counterterrorism effort into the Black Sea. Turkey and Russia's joint opposition to the U.S....
PUTIN IN BAKU: CHANGES IN AZERI-RUSSIAN ENERGY RELATIONS ON THE HORIZON
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Baku this week to officially open the "Year of Russia in Azerbaijan" celebration. But it is safe to assume that it was not the issues...
MOSCOW SAYS GEORGIAN PARLIAMENT’S VOTE ON PEACEKEEPERS INCONSEQUENTIAL
On February 15 Georgia's parliament unanimously called for Russian peacekeepers to be withdrawn from the breakaway region of South Ossetia and be replaced by international forces. But Moscow and Tskhinvali,...
KREMLIN CALLS ON COMPATRIOTS TO COME BACK TO MOTHER RUSSIA
The Kremlin has set up a commission charged with encouraging the denizens of the former Soviet republics to migrate to Russia. Although Russia is experiencing a severe demographic crisis and...
BIFURCATION OF EUROPE: RUSSIA PONDERS STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE IN EURO-EAST
A new World Bank study, released on January 31, warns that the countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are moving along two divergent economic trajectories: a group...
RUSSIA WELCOMES UZBEKISTAN INTO ITS EURASIAN ENERGY EMPIRE
On January 25, at the St. Petersburg summit of the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC), Uzbekistan officially joined this Russia-led integration organization. This decision marked yet another stage in Uzbekistan's geopolitical...
KREMLIN ENERGY POLICY IN EUROPE: DIVIDE ET IMPERA
The jury is still out on whether Russian President Vladimir Putin's idea to turn his country into an "energy superpower" is a viable long-term development strategy. Yet in the short...
IVANOV RESTATES KREMLIN’S MONROE DOCTRINE
An increasingly assertive Moscow appears to be revising the organizational forms it has used to dominate the post-Soviet space. While a growing number of influential Russian policymakers and pundits speak...
KREMLIN ENERGY POLICY IN UKRAINE: UNWIELDY COMBINATION OF STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES AND PRIVATE INTERESTS
The controversial deal that brought an end, at least for now, to the acrimonious gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine (see EDM, January 5) appears to reflect a contradictory mix...
RUSSIA’S ARMS DEAL WITH IRAN: KREMLIN BELIEVES U.S. TOO WEAK FOR STRONG RESPONSE
The Russian leadership appears to believe that the Iraq debacle marked the tuning point in the short-lived era of American global supremacy. The Iran arms deal suggests that the Kremlin...
KREMLIN USES ENERGY TO TEACH EX-SOVIET NEIGHBORS A LESSON IN GEOPOLITICAL LOYALTY
Russia appears increasingly ready to use its status as a leading energy producer as an instrument of its muscular policy in the post-Soviet lands. Neighboring countries that do not have...
RUSSIA’S WARMING TOWARD UZBEKISTAN MAY DAMAGE RELATIONS WITH THE WEST
As the Kremlin inked an alliance with Uzbekistan this week, the European Union banned arms sales to Tashkent and imposed visa restrictions on top Uzbek officials. While Russia may have...
KREMLIN SIGNALS TO THE BALTS IT IS DISPLEASED WITH THEIR DEFIANT STANCE
Yesterday (November 10) Moscow denied an entry visa to Estonia's foreign minister. Although the move was allegedly prompted by the Estonian side failing to comply with certain diplomatic formalities, it...
WAR ON TERRORISM IN THE CAUCASUS: RUSSIA BREEDS JIHADISTS
Ever since the September 11 attacks, the Kremlin leadership has been going out of its way to cast Russia as a frontline state that, in its North Caucasus region, valiantly...
NEW NATIONAL HOLIDAY: STRENGTHENING PUTIN’S STATIST SYNTHESIS
Today, November 4, Russia celebrates a new national holiday -- People's Unity Day. The holiday marks the end of the Polish occupation of Moscow in 1612 when the country's capital...
MOSCOW PUNDITS PONDER THE CHALLENGE OF POLISH CONSERVATIVE NATIONALISM
As a conservative nationalist known for his dislike of Russia prepares to become president of Poland, Kremlin strategists are pondering how the leadership change might affect the perennial rivalry between...
RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY EXPERTS DEBATE INTERACTION WITH AMERICA IN GREATER CENTRAL ASIA
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's trip to Central Asia on October 20-21 reinvigorated the already lively discussion over the true nature of Russian-U.S. interaction in the strategic region. Most Moscow...
CENTRAL ASIA: REPLAYING THE GREAT GAME
There is a direct parallel between the current Russian-American rivalry in Central Asia and the military-diplomatic duel that the Russian and British empires were waging in the Eurasian heartland in...
MOSCOW SKILLFULLY USES ENERGY LEVERAGE TO DIVIDE EUROPE
The October 4 Russia-EU summit in London, as well as the talks Russian President Vladimir Putin held with Belgian leaders in Brussels on October 3 and with British Prime Minister...
RUSSIA UNEASY ABOUT POLAND’S RIGHTWARD SHIFT
Russia's political class is warily eyeing the government in Poland, where two center-right parties won the September 25 parliamentary elections. As relations between Moscow and Warsaw, never particularly warm, have...
MOSCOW UNDECIDED ON POLICY TOWARD CRISIS-STRICKEN UKRAINE
The gloating heard in the Kremlin over Kyiv's political troubles is giving way to concern and apprehension. While fully realizing the utmost importance of the current Ukrainian events, Russian strategists...
TURMOIL IN UKRAINE GALVANIZES KREMLIN INTO ACTION
The Kremlin sees the ongoing political crisis in Kyiv that culminated in last week's dismissal of the Yulia Tymoshenko government by President Viktor Yushchenko as an opportune moment to restart...
KREMLIN WANTS TO SET PARAMETERS ON WESTERN INTERESTS IN CIS STATES
As the geopolitical competition in the former Soviet lands becomes more acute, the Kremlin is seeking to revamp its strategy towards the Commonwealth of Independent States. First Moscow sends a...
WHAT IS BEHIND THE GROWING TENSION IN RUSSIAN-POLISH RELATIONS?
The relationship between Moscow and Warsaw, never particularly easy throughout the last decade, appears to have degraded to the level of fistfights. Exactly a week after the July 31 mugging...
ISSUES CLOUDING GOOD-NEIGHBORLY RELATIONS BETWEEN MOSCOW AND HELSINKI
On August 1-2, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a quick visit to Finland. Relations between the two neighboring countries are in an excellent state now, and the level of bilateral...
KREMLIN ENVOY SAYS BRUSSELS IS A DIFFICULT PARTNER
On July 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed veteran diplomat Vladimir Chizhov to be Russia's permanent representative at the European Union. Assessing his new role, the Kremlin envoy conceded that...
REBIRTH OF AGITPROP: RUSSIA’S SPENDING ON PATRIOTIC PROPAGANDA WILL TRIPLE
On July 18, the Russian government adopted a special federal program of patriotic education that will promote national and state values through the year 2010. The blueprint was reportedly lobbied...
ANALYSTS DEBATE PROS AND CONS OF “EASTERN VECTOR” IN KREMLIN’S FOREIGN POLICY
Most international and Russian experts seem to appreciate the geostrategic significance of the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit (see EDM, July 6, 7). The general consensus within the analytic...
RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY EXPERTS MULL STRATEGY TOWARD POST-SOVIET LANDS
In the opinion of some representatives of Russia's political class, the "losing streak" that began last year is still continuing, as Moscow's geopolitical influence in post-Soviet Eurasia keeps shrinking. However,...
RUSSIAN POLITICAL THINKERS JOIN THE DEBATE ON EUROPE
Irony and satisfaction – these are two emotions with which most Russian policymakers and analysts observe the acute identity crisis that the European Union currently finds itself in. Against the...
MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON PURSUE DIVERGING POLICIES IN UZBEKISTAN, CENTRAL ASIA
Securing stability in the volatile region of Central Asia is a paramount strategic interest of both Russia and the United States. But following violent unrest in eastern Uzbekistan, Moscow and...
RUSSIA SEEKS TO REASSERT ITS STATUS AS A KEY POWER IN THE CAUCASUS
Having finally agreed last week to withdraw the two Soviet-era bases from Georgia by 2008, Moscow was quick to send a signal to those who believe Russia's retreat from the...
RUSSIAN ANALYSTS SAY MOSCOW MAY BENEFIT FROM FRENCH AND DUTCH “NO” TO EU CONSTITUTION
As the European Union's leadership reels from the French and Dutch rejection of the bloc's proposed constitution in national referendums on May 29 and June 1, respectively, most Russian analysts...
WILL BAKU-TBILISI-CEYHAN PIPELINE CARRY REVOLUTIONARY IDEAS ALONG WITH CRUDE?
During the opening ceremony on May 25, oil started flowing into the U.S.-backed Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which will bring Caspian hydrocarbons to Western markets and break Russia's monopoly on energy...
RUSSIAN PUNDITS DIVIDED ON HOW TO REACT TO THE DEATH THROُES OF POST-SOVIET WORLD
The violent unrest spreading across eastern Uzbekistan may symbolize the second, and final, stage of the Soviet Union's collapse. Russian strategists appear divided as to what Moscow's response should be...
MOSCOW AND BRUSSELS TRY TO MEND FENCES BUT SERIOUS PROBLEMS REMAIN
On May 10, the 15th Russia-EU summit was held in Moscow. Coming immediately after the pompous celebrations of Victory Day in the Russian capital, the meeting resulted in the signing...
Assessing The Moscow Subway Blast: Tragic Accident Or A Lethal Spillover From The War In Chechnya?
Following last week’s deadly explosion in the Moscow subway, Russia’s political leadership, the bulk of the analytical community and ordinary citizens were quick to call the blast the work of...
Russia And The War On Terror: Not A Trusted U.s. Ally
It is widely believed that cooperation in fighting international terrorism and the development of global energy resources are the two main pillars of U.S.-Russian relations post September 11. The firmness...
MOSCOW WARILY EYES YUSHCHENKO’S HERO’S WELCOME IN WASHINGTON
It would probably be an understatement to say that the Kremlin was likely not pleased with the unprecedented number of standing ovations with which American lawmakers welcomed Ukrainian President Viktor...
RUSSIA’S POLITICAL CLASS IS SPLIT OVER HOW TO PROCEED WITH INTEGRATION OF POST-SOVIET SPACE
Contradictory Kremlin statements on the possible fate of the Commonwealth of Independent States (see EDM, March 31) reflect the strategic confusion among Russian policymakers and pundits about the country's policy...
MOSCOW PUNDITS PONDER TURMOIL IN KYRGYZSTAN
As Askar Akayev's regime collapsed across Kyrgyzstan, Russian policymakers and analysts considered whether the upheaval in the Central Asian republic falls into the same category as the Rose Revolution in...
UKRAINE CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE RUSSIA’S ROLE AS A CENTER OF GRAVITY IN POST-SOVIET LANDS
As Russian President Vladimir Putin prepares to meet with his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yushchenko on March 19, Kyiv defies Moscow's leadership role in the post-Soviet space. On March 14, Yushchenko...
RIFT BETWEEN MOSCOW AND BALTIC STATES: IS IT ALL ABOUT HISTORY?
The presidents of Estonia and Lithuania have refused invitations to attend the May 9 ceremonies in Moscow celebrating the 60th anniversary of the end of World War II. This move...
PUTIN’S “WALKING TOGETHER” MOVEMENT COMES UP SHORT
A specter is haunting Russia's political class -- the specter of Ukraine's Orange Revolution. The Putinists seem hell-bent on preventing any repetition of Ukrainian or Georgian events in Russia. On...
DIFFERENT UNDERSTANDING OF DEMOCRACY MAY PUT BUSH AND PUTIN ON COLLISION COURSE
All smiles and backslapping notwithstanding, the Bush-Putin Bratislava summit laid bare the stark divergence of the two leaders' political philosophies. Describing their social ideals and values, "George" and "Vladimir" seem...
MOSCOW ANALYSTS MULL PROPER STRATEGY TOWARD POST-REVOLUTIONARY UKRAINE
As Ukraine's newly formed government prepares to thoroughly revamp the moribund socio-political system it inherited from the corrupt Kuchma administration, Russia is warily pondering its policies toward a new Ukraine....
IS RUSSIA ABOUT TO TURN ITS GAZE TOWARD THE EAST?
Three events this week indicate the fast-growing economic and geopolitical ties between Moscow and Beijing. The Russian government's announcement of a massive Chinese loan to Rosneft, a pledge by a...
KREMLIN WARY OF EMERGING KYIV-TBILISI AXIS
Russian analysts are growing uneasy over what they see as a nascent geostrategic relationship between the "post-revolutionary" governments of Georgia and Ukraine. Moscow is wary that pro-Western leaders in Kyiv...
MOSCOW AND ANKARA STRENGTHEN ECONOMIC TIES AND EXPLORE PROSPECTS FOR STRATEGIC COOPERATION
The January 10-12 visit of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Moscow demonstrated a dramatically increased level of Russian-Turkish economic and political relations. As it took place just one...
WANTED: COMPETITIVE IDEOLOGY AND ATTRACTIVE SOCIAL MODEL TO HELP RUSSIA RETAIN ITS CRUMBLING SPHERE OF INFLUENCE
The Kremlin's recent foreign-policy failures, particularly its inglorious defeat in the "battle for Ukraine," appear to have sparked a review of Russia's policies towards its neighbors in the post-Soviet space....
RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY EXPERTS DEBATE STRATEGY FOR 2005
As the year 2005 begins, Russia's foreign policy strategy appears to be at a fork in the road. Most experts agree that the country's principal strategic dilemma remains unresolved. On...
RUSSIA’S POLITICAL CLASS DIGESTS YUSHCHENKO WIN
Vladimir Putin's icy silence on Viktor Yushchenko's victory in Ukraine's marathon presidential race likely reveals the Kremlin's current strategic predicament. With the Orange Revolution triumph in Kyiv, Moscow faces a...
AFTER UKRAINE DEBACLE, KREMLIN STRATEGISTS WARN OF SERIOUS RIFT WITH THE WEST
Some Western commentators have already called 2004 Russian President Vladimir Putin's annus horribilis. This year has seen the Kremlin's political failures in the Caucasus and Ukraine as well as Putin's...
RUSSIAN ANALYSTS PONDER ORANGE REVOLUTION’S IMPLICATIONS FOR KREMLIN DOMINANCE IN CIS
With democratic challenger Viktor Yushchenko all but set to win a repeat presidential runoff in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing his greatest foreign policy crisis. At stake is...
IN SEARCH OF TRILATERAL POWER, PUTIN GOES EAST
Having all but lost his Ukraine gambit, Russian President Vladimir Putin headed to India and Turkey on state visits in early December. The Kremlin leader's talks with Indian and Turkish...
IN SEARCH OF TRILATERAL POWER, PUTIN GOES EAST
Having all but lost his Ukraine gambit, Russian President Vladimir Putin headed to India and Turkey on state visits in early December. The Kremlin leader's talks with Indian and Turkish...
UKRAINE ELECTION CRISIS: A MOMENT OF TRUTH FOR RUSSIA’S RELATIONS WITH THE WEST
As the democratic opposition continues to swell the streets of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, the Moscow Kremlin is likely having second thoughts about its policies toward Russia's western neighbor....
KREMLIN RECOGNIZES YANUKOVYCH AS UKRAINE’S NEW PRESIDENT
As the tens of thousands of Ukrainians continue to protest the outcome of Sunday's presidential runoff, Moscow has embraced Ukraine's Prime Minister, Viktor Yanukovych, as the new president-elect. Russia's President...
RUSSIAN POLICYMAKERS, ANALYSTS CONSIDER RUSSIA-U.S. RELATIONS DURING PRESIDENT BUSH’S SECOND TERM
As President George W. Bush reshuffles his cabinet, Moscow political elites are discussing what kind of changes in policy, personnel, and cooperation can be expected during his second term. The...
PUTIN RETURNS TO UKRAINE UNDER VEIL OF SECRECY
On November 12-13, Russian President Vladimir Putin made his second visit to Ukraine in as many weeks. Although Kremlin officials maintain that this time Putin went to the neighboring country...
MOSCOW POLICYMAKERS COMPLAIN ABOUT LACK OF TRUST BETWEEN RUSSIA AND EU
On November 11, the Kremlins press service announced that the Russia-EU summit, originally scheduled for that day but abruptly postponed at Moscow's request, would now take place on November 25...
ELECTIONS IN U.S. AND UKRAINE PROMPT RUSSIAN ANALYSTS TO CONSIDER CIS PROSPECTS
The stakes that Russian political elites made in the U.S. and Ukrainian presidential races reveal Russia's growing concern over its leading role in the Commonwealth of Independent States, according to...
RUSSIA’S POLITICAL ELITES WANT BUSH RE-ELECTED
Long before Americans go to the polls today, Russian political elites had made their choice: the Kremlin wants to see George W. Bush in the White House for another four...
KREMLIN VIEWS UKRAINE AS BATTLEGROUND BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE WEST
With the Ukrainian presidential election just two days away, it is becoming increasingly clear how crucial this ballot is. Its outcome, as the dean of Ukraine specialists, Harvard University Professor...
DOES MOSCOW REALLY WANT LUKASHENKA TO BE PRESIDENT-FOR-LIFE?
The Russian political elite appears to be deeply divided over how to react to Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenka's efforts to rule his country indefinitely. While some policymakers in Moscow suggest...
POLICYMAKERS, ANALYSTS DEBATE THE PROSPECTS OF A RUSSIAN-U.S. PARTNERSHIP
Two events -- the upcoming U.S. presidential election and Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent announcement of his controversial "reform measures" -- appear to have intensified discussions about the current state...
WILL RUSSIA AGAIN BE PERCEIVED AS EUROPE’S MIRROR IMAGE?
Some 150 years ago Russian Tsar Nicolas I, who was considered one of the Old Continent's most powerful rulers, contemptuously called the Ottoman Turkish Empire the "sick man of Europe."...
RUSSIA’S ATTEMPT TO EXPORT “MANAGED DEMOCRACY” TO ABKHAZIA BACKFIRES
Although the outcome of the chaotic October 3 "presidential election" in Georgia's separatist region of Abkhazia is still uncertain, one major loser is already known: the Kremlin. Russia's crude involvement...
GROWING RIFT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE WEST UNDERMINES COOPERATION IN THE WAR ON TERROR
As the Kremlin continues strengthening its "power vertical," the West appears to be stepping up its criticism of the Putin administration, accusing Russia of moving in the wrong direction. Numerous...
ARE THERE CHECHEN TERRORISTS IN NORTHERN CYPRUS?
As the great powers demonstrate their resolve to crush terrorism and declare their readiness to strike preventively at terrorist bases "anywhere in the world," some lesser international actors appear ready...
UKRAINIAN ELECTION: KREMLIN AGITPROP AT WORK
With Ukraine's presidential poll just a month away, the Kremlin propaganda machine is working at full speed. As one group of Moscow spin doctors accuse the West of interfering in...
IS RUSSIA READY TO RECOGNIZE SECESSIONIST STATELETS WITHIN THE CIS?
In an apparent attempt to break the strategic deadlock now governing Russia's policies in Georgia and Moldova, some Moscow political pundits advocate a speedy recognition of the secessionist regions of...
Kremlin Still Lacks A Clear-cut Strategy For The Cis
Although Russian President Vladimir Putin was given the symbolic position of chairman of the CIS Council at the end of last week's summit in Astana, the gathering demonstrated that Russia...
Putin’s Latest Moves Invoke Russian Tradition, Not Western Standards
The radical shakeup of Russia's system of power recently announced by President Vladimir Putin will further inhibit political pluralism. This shift away from democracy and toward more authoritarian practices will...
As Russia Seeks Revenge, Tbilisi Is Likely To Find Itself On The Front Line
Regional analysts predict that the recent comments from Russia's top brass that Moscow will preemptively strike "terrorist bases" anywhere in the world will likely cause alarm in all neighboring countries,...
Debates Within Russian Political Class Show Moscow’s Suspicions Of The West
The recent spate of terrorist acts in Russia has prompted Moscow policymakers and analysts to assert that their country is at war. Yet the fundamental question "against who?" remains as...
After Beslan Debacle, Russian Pundits Debate How To Prevent Destabilization Of Caucasus
Russia's President Vladimir Putin urged a radical restructuring of the country's security system after the hostage crisis in North Ossetia ended in a major bloodbath. But some influential analysts argue...
Moscow Gives Muted Response To U.S. Troop Redeployment
In mid-August, the Bush administration unveiled plans for the global redeployment of U.S. troops. According to the Pentagon blueprint, around 100,000 U.S. servicemen will be moved from Western Europe and...
Baku Seeks To Break Karabakh Deadlock
The Azerbaijani leadership is showing its impatience at the continuing diplomatic deadlock over the disputed province of Karabakh. The signals coming out of Baku indicate that the Aliev administration is...
Kremlin Policies In South Ossetian Conflict Under Fire
The latest escalation in Georgia's breakaway region of South Ossetia re-ignited a heated policy debate in Moscow on what should be the Kremlin's stance in the conflict. Significantly, Russia's policies...
Moscow Stresses Geopolitics Of Ukrainian Presidential Race
With Ukraine's presidential election just three months away, Russia appears to be stepping up efforts to influence the outcome of the ballot in its neighbor. Ukraine remains the linchpin in...
Putin Urges Shift In Russia’s Cis Policies
On July 19 Russia's Security Council convened a special meeting in the Kremlin to discuss the growing geopolitical rivalry in the post-Soviet space and Moscow's position within the Commonwealth of...
Putin Urges Russian Diplomats To Be More Active In The Post-soviet States
On July 12, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his second plenary address to the Russian diplomatic corps. Putin declared that Russia should be at the vanguard of the countries "shaping...
South Ossetia: Tensions Subside But Uncertainty Lingers
After several days of a violent war of words and escalating tension, the threat of an armed conflict in the secessionist region of South Ossetia appears to have passed. Before...
Russia Mulls Strategy To Stall Nato’s Push Into Post-soviet Eurasia
At its Istanbul summit last month, the 26-member Atlantic Alliance announced its newfound interest in the strategic regions of the Caucasus and Central Asia. Although the unveiled measures aimed at...
Has Moscow Lost Control Of The North Caucasus?
As the Kremlin prepares to install its latest handpicked president in Chechnya, it faces the prospect of losing control over the North Caucasus entirely. Last week's brazen assault on law-enforcement...
Russia’s Eastern Offensive: Eurasianism Versus Atlanticism
Last week saw an intensification of Russia's diplomacy in strategic Central Asia. On June 17, the leaders of Russia, China, and four Central Asian nations met in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, to...
Tension Over South Ossetia Triggers Policy Debate In Moscow
Last week's demonstration of force by the Georgian central government on the administrative border with the breakaway region of South Ossetia sparked a vigorous debate among Russia's policy-makers, media and...
Russian Strategists Debate Kremlin Policies On Cis Integration
In his recent state of the nation address, Russia's President Vladimir Putin was excruciatingly specific about his administration's economic policies. He was much less specific, however, in addressing the issue...
Chechnya: Sorting Out The Policy Options
Having scheduled an early presidential election in Chechnya for September 5, the Kremlin appears to have opted for the continuation of its existing Chechenization policy in the wake of the...
Moscow Gatherings Debate Russian-u.s. Ties
As the international community finds itself in a state of flux with the unprecedented global war on terror and the deepening crisis in Iraq, leading Moscow strategists are trying to...
Killings In Grozny Rock Kremlin’s Chechnya Policy
The murder of Akhmad Kadyrov, a former mufti turned politician handpicked by the Kremlin to lead the pro-Moscow administration in Chechnya (see yesterday's EDM), dealt a severe blow to the...
Abashidze Falls, Power Shifts In The South Caucasus
In the early hours on May 6, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili announced that Ajarian leader Aslan Abashidze had fled the region and that the central government had restored control over...
Un Veto Sparks Debate On Russian Policy Aims
On April 21, Russia used its veto power - for the first time in ten years - to block a draft UN Security Council resolution on Cyprus. A British- and...
Ajarian Crisis Threatens To Escalate
A conflict between Georgia's federal government in Tbilisi and the leadership of the renegade republic of Ajaria has reached a dangerous point over the past two days. On May 2,...
Assessing The Moscow Subway Blast: Tragic Accident Or A Lethal Spillover From The War In Chechnya?
Following last week’s deadly explosion in the Moscow subway, Russia’s political leadership, the bulk of the analytical community and ordinary citizens were quick to call the blast the work of...
Russia And The War On Terror: Not A Trusted U.s. Ally
It is widely believed that cooperation in fighting international terrorism and the development of global energy resources are the two main pillars of U.S.-Russian relations post September 11. The firmness...
WAR ON TERRORISM IN THE CAUCASUS: RUSSIA BREEDS JIHADISTS
Ever since the September 11 attacks, the Kremlin leadership has been going out of its way to cast Russia as a frontline state that, in its North Caucasus region, valiantly...