Arseny Sivitsky
Arseny Sivitsky is a military analyst and the Director of the Center for Strategic and Foreign Policy Studies in Minsk.
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Articles by Arseny Sivitsky
Amidst Zapad 2021 Exercise, Russia and Belarus Establish Joint Air-Defense and Air Force Training and Combat Center
While Russia and Belarus made final preparations to kick off their quadrennial joint strategic-operational exercise Zapad 2021, the two countries’ air-defense and air force units were put on joint duty...
Kremlin Considers Armenian Model to Resolve Belarus Crisis
After the West extended additional sanctions against Belarus and following Belarusian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s big press conference on August 9, the Kremlin began signaling its readiness to implement the so-called...
The Hijacking of the Ryanair Flight Over Belarus: A Russian ‘Reflexive Control’ Operation?
The Belarusian authorities’ forced landing of the Vilnius-bound Ryanair Flight 4978 at Minsk airport, on May 23, and the arrest of the opposition NEXTA Telegram channel founder Roman Protasevich, who...
Lukashenka Agrees to Joint Air Patrols and Training Centers With Russia, but Still Opposes Military Base (Part Two)
*To read Part One, please click here. In addition to restarting joint air-patrol missions beginning this summer (see Part One), Belarus and Russia have agreed to establish three shared combat-training...
Lukashenka Agrees to Joint Air Patrols and Training Centers With Russia, but Still Opposes Military Base (Part One)
The air forces of Russia and Belarus will begin joint air-defense missions out of one of the Belarusian airfields this summer. In reaching this agreement, Minsk and Moscow are resuming...
Kremlin Considers Renewed Interference in Belarus Under Guise of Coronavirus Crisis Response
After Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka rejected the Kremlin’s so-called integration ultimatum at the end of 2019, and following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announced constitutional changes, the following January, to effectively...
Belarus’s Contribution to Security and Stability in Central and Eastern Europe: Regional Safeguards, Strategic Autonomy and National Defense Modernization
Executive Summary Belarus has been widely commended for hosting a neutral platform for diplomatic negotiations over the Russian-Ukrainian war; but its major contribution to regional security and stability is related...
Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Is Alarmed by Belarusian-Western Normalization
Following predictions by Russian military intelligence (GRU) that the West wants to separate Belarus from Russia and incorporate it into the Western orbit (see EDM, February 22), Moscow’s civilian external...
Belarus Adopts Information Security Concept Amid Growing Propaganda Pressure From Russia
Belarus adopted a new Information Security Concept (ISC) on March 18, 2019, based on a resolution from the Belarus Security Council (President.gov.by, March 18). Its adoption clearly demonstrates not only...
Not an Enemy: Belarus Seeks Warmer Relations With NATO
Belarus wants to expand constructive dialogue with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on the basis of trust, equality, transparency and mutual respect. Further development of cooperation with the Alliance...
Russian Think Tanks Propose Contingency Plans for Sustaining Russian Influence in Belarus
Belarus’s ongoing drive to cautiously normalize relations with the West has raised concerns from Russian military intelligence, commonly known as the GRU, that Moscow is losing its influence over Minsk...
Belarus’s Relations With the West Receive Growing Scrutiny From Russian Military Intelligence
The Kremlin’s concerns about maintaining Belarus within its geopolitical sphere of influence have been mounting as of late. In particular, Moscow feels threatened by Minsk’s efforts to preserve its independence...
New Union State Military Doctrine Will Not Change Status Quo in Belarusian-Russian Military Alliance
Despite recent concerns from some security analysts that a new Military Doctrine of the Union State of Russia and Belarus will include provisions for the establishment of a Russian military...